706 
FXUS64 KMOB 041852
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
152 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
 
- Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible
  each afternoon through the rest of the week, potentially
  increasing in coverage over the weekend.

- Heat indices will trend upward through mid week, reaching
  around 100-107 degrees Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Through Friday...a closed upper low over the Southeast opens and 
moves off as upper highs over the Desert Southwest and off the East 
Coast build east/west over the Southern Plains and Southeast, 
leaving a weakness over the Southeast. A weakly organized surface 
low over the eastern half of the Southeast opens and moves off with 
the upper dynamics. A surface ridge shifts north and builds over the 
Southeast from the eastern upper ridge, restoring onshore flow over 
the Southeast. A drier airmass (precipitable h20 values around 1.5", 
with the drier air being above 700mb) that has pushed over the 
western half of the Southeast sees alternate bands of drier and 
moister air moving over the region through the end of the week.
An uptick in PoPs comes Wednesday and Thursday, though a downward 
trend occurs Friday into the weekend as upper subsidence increases 
with the building upper ridge. The drier air above surface may 
enhance any stronger storms developing Wednesday and Thursday. 
Enough instability is present for stronger storms each day (MLCapes 
of 1500-2000J/kg), though any organizing shear is limited. Soundings 
show DCapes rising above 1000J/kg each afternoon, enough for strong 
to severe downbursts.
the Temperatures through Friday remain at or above seasonal norms, 
with higher temperatures over the western half of the forecast area 
(closer to the Southern Plains upper ridge) rising above. High 
temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected each day, around 90 
along the coast. Low temperatures in the around 70 to low 70s 
tonight (mid 70s along the coast) rise to the low to low to mid 70s 
by Wednesday night (upper 70s along the coast). Heat indices in the 
95-101 degree range today rise into the 100 to 107 degree range by 
Thursday, though with the inconsistent moisture handling this may be 
delayed until Friday.  

Friday night on, the upper ridge off the East Coast becomes dominant 
and expands over the Southeast over the weekend, with the surface 
ridge over the Southeast becoming more organized. Moisture levels 
rise back over 2". Rain chances increase through the weekend in 
response, though the building upper ridge will help to temper the 
PoPs, to a bit above seasonal norms. Temperatures remain a bit above 
seasonal norms through the weekend, with daytime Heat Indices 
generally in the 100-107 degree range.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the Low Risk 
today through midweek. By the end of the week, a more organized 
onshore flow will increase the Rip Risk to an upper Low to Moderate 
in the coming weekend, with our Florida beaches seeing the better 
chance of a Moderate Risk.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

General westerly flow over area waters will shift to 
southerly through the week. Near the coast, a night-time offshore, 
afternoon/ evening onshore component will provide a more diurnally 
variable flow to area waters.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  73  93  73 /  10   0  30   0 
Pensacola   91  77  93  77 /  10   0  20  10 
Destin      89  78  89  78 /  10   0  10  10 
Evergreen   91  70  92  71 /  10   0  20  10 
Waynesboro  93  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden      89  71  91  73 /   0   0  10   0 
Crestview   92  71  93  71 /  10   0  30  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$