548 
FXUS65 KBOU 221114
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
514 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm coverage and intensity increases today and Thursday as
  monsoonal moisture moves into the region. Storms from today
  onward will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall along
  with a localized threat of flash flooding. 

- Storm coverage expected to decrease again by Friday into this
  upcoming weekend, although mountain areas should see at least
  scattered storm coverage each afternoon and evening. 

- Temperatures will rise back into the upper 90's to lower 100's
  over northeast Colorado for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For today, will continue to see monsoon moisture moving across the 
area as the main upper level high is centered to the southeast of 
the area.  PW's across the high terrain will be from 150% to 200% 
above normal so expect areas of heavier rainfall during the aftn 
with the stronger storms.  Across the plains, the low level flow 
will be SSE with a Denver cyclone expected by aftn. Should see tstms 
develop along the associated convergence zone with storms moving 
slowly to the east across the plains from late aftn thru the 
evening hours. Additional storms may also develop along the I-25 
Corridor as outflow boundaries move across from the higher 
terrain. Once again, with PW's aoa 150% of normal, expect some 
areas of heavy rainfall. SBCAPE will range from 1500-2000 j/kg 
over the plains but overall shear will be fairly weak. However, 
can't rule out an isold marginal svr storm or two. Highs this 
aftn, will remain in the upper 80's to mid 90's over nern CO.

For tonight, a weak upper level trough will move into wrn CO which 
may allow for showers and a few tstms to continue over the higher 
terrain overnight.  Across the plains, should see a decrease in 
shower/tstm activity by midnight.

On Thu, monsoon moisture will continue over the area as the weak 
upper level trough moves across the area.  PW's are still fcst to be 
from 150% to 200% above normal.  Thus should see another round of 
showers and storms across much of the area with areas of heavy 
rainfall. Highs on Thu will be in the mid 80's to lower 90's across 
the plains.  

Looking ahead to Fri and Sat, the upper level high will gradually 
build back into the area as monsoon moisture decreases.  As a 
result, will see tstm activity become more sct over the higher 
terrain with only a slight chc of storms over the plains both days. 
Highs will be warmer as well, as readings rise back into the 
upper 90's to lower 100's, across the plains by Sat.

For Sun into Mon, an upper level high will extend from the Great 
Basin across Colorado.  The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement 
tonight, with regards to whether there will be another surge of 
monsoon moisture moving into the area. Both models now show
monsoon moisture affecting the area both days, especially across 
the higher terrain. Meanwhile temperatures will remain in the 
upper 90's to lower 100's for highs across nern CO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

South winds early this morning will become light and variable by
14z. By 17Z they will become ENE and then more ELY by 20Z. Sct 
tstms will move across between 21z and 01z so have included a 
tempo group. Brief gusty winds up to 40 mph with visibility 
restrictions from 3-5 miles occur. Naturally if a stronger storm 
were to occur then may see higher wind gusts with lower 
visibility. Wind speeds and directions will be chaotic as storms 
move across afte4r 21z.

After 01z, should see decreasing potential for tstms so will just
mention prob30 but there may be lingering showers thru 05z. Wind
directions may still be erractic early this evening but should
become SSW by 05z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK