287 
FXUS64 KFWD 101740
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Hot and dry conditions will continue today with heat index
  values up to 105 degrees.

- Rain and storm chances return to the region Sunday through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Expect another warm day today with highs in the upper 90s to low 
100s. Conditions are expected to stay dry this afternoon and into
tonight. Skies will stay mostly clear overnight with temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 70s just before sunrise tomorrow.

Conditions will still be quite warm on Saturday, with temperatures 
climbing into the mid to upper 90s. The low-levels have still 
been mixing down well over the past few days, which should keep us
out of heat advisory territory with general heat indices of 
100-105. Sea breeze convection looks to be less likely with recent
model runs but our southern zones could see some partly cloudy 
skies by the late afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The synoptic pattern is expected to shift Saturday night as the 
upper-level high over southern AZ/NM shifts northward. This could
work to amplify a trough over the Mississippi Valley late this
weekend and into next week. Current model runs agree on the 
presence of an upper-level trough, although trough strength still 
remains a divisive component. The Euro depicts the weakest wave, 
followed by a stronger GFS solution that stretches the trough axis
from the lower Midwest toward the Ark-La-Tx. The 12z NAM follows 
the GFS until a cutoff low develops on Monday. As such, there is 
uncertainty on the location of any rainfall from Sunday through 
the middle of the week. However, PWAT values have been 
particularly high on recent soundings, which raises the risk of 
heavy rain producing showers and possible flash flooding. The 
amount and location of any rain will be a focus for forecasts over
the next few days. 

Even without the potential for rain, the northerly flow that is 
expected aloft will help make temperatures a bit more comfortable. 
Current estimates have highs in the upper 80s and low 90s across the 
region for Tuesday. Unfortunately, the relief will be short-lived as 
southerly flow returns on Thursday and brings temperatures back into 
the mid to upper 90s for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with southerly
winds and mostly clear skies. Winds are expected to get gusty 
this afternoon at around 25 kts before weakening back near 10 kts 
this evening. Any rain chances are limited to areas south of the 
terminals.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  99  80  97 /   0   0  10  40 
Waco                77  95  78  95 /   0  20  20  20 
Paris               77  96  76  91 /   0   0  30  50 
Denton              77  98  79  97 /   0   0  10  40 
McKinney            79  98  79  95 /   0   0  10  40 
Dallas              81  99  80  98 /   0   0  10  40 
Terrell             77  97  77  95 /   0   0  10  40 
Corsicana           77  96  79  96 /   0  20  20  30 
Temple              75  94  77  95 /   0  20  20  20 
Mineral Wells       75  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Crumbacher
LONG TERM....Crumbacher
AVIATION...Crumbacher