350 
FXUS64 KFWD 100707
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
207 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Hot and dry conditions will continue today with heat index
  values up to 105 degrees.

- Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday
  through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Another seasonably hot and breezy day is in store today with highs
of 95-100 and heat index values up to 105. Expect southerly winds
of 10-20 mph with some daytime gusts exceeding 25 mph before
speeds decline in the evening. A modest low-level southerly fetch
may allow for isolated seabreeze convection to encroach on our
southeastern zones this afternoon, although these chances are too
low to include a mention of thunderstorms in the public forecast 
at this time. While the upper ridge is presently quite diffuse, it
will amplify and strengthen to our west/northwest heading into 
the weekend. This pattern shift will open the door for a trough 
axis to sag southward into the Central/Southern Plains on the 
ridge's southeast periphery, resulting in increasingly unsettled 
weather later in the weekend. This weakness aloft should allow 
for a greater potential for convective activity mainly across 
Central Texas on Saturday afternoon, perhaps also aided by 
outflows from inland-advancing seabreeze convection. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A period of unsettled weather is expected from late Saturday into
next week. This will be due to an amplified upper ridge to our
northwest, while mid-level troughing and an easterly wave slowly
traverse the Southern Plains over the course of a few days. The 
result will be disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity each 
day, which will not necessarily be diurnally driven due to the 
added source of dynamic ascent present from the easterly wave/low.
Shear will be quite weak in the presence of this feature, while 
seasonably moderate/high instability exists along with above 
normal (90th+ percentile) PW values. This will likely result in 
isolated flooding problems being the primary forecast highlight, 
with secondary wind/hail threats accompanying any stronger 
thunderstorms through the extended forecast period. A flooding 
threat could also be accentuated due to slow storm motions, with 
very weak flow through the column during this time period. 
Convective mode should largely consist of a combination of 
multicellular clusters along with a few more structured linear 
segments. Peak thunderstorm chances will be Sunday through Tuesday
when the upper trough/low will have its maximum influence 
locally, before convective chances wind down beyond midweek. The 
presence of daytime precipitation/outflows along with extra cloud 
cover will aid in keeping temperatures near or below normal for 
these few days, with highs in the lower 90s or perhaps even only 
upper 80s depending on the amount of convection that does end up 
occurring. An east/southeast expansion of the upper ridge by 
Thursday/Friday will send temperatures back to the upper 90s to 
around 100 with a return to seasonably hot and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR will prevail today with breezy south winds. Expect some
daytime gusts around 25 kts before wind speeds decline this 
evening. All convective activity is expected to remain south of 
the airports through the forecast period. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                99  77  96  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton             101  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney           100  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas             101  80 100  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           98  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              99  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells      101  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley