311 
FXUS64 KFWD 082333
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Isolated storms are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35.
  Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main threats with any 
  storms.

- Hot and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low
  storm chances returning across the region by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quasi-stationary convection occurred across Hopkins county
overnight into this morning in which MRMS has estimated as much 
as 7 inches of rainfall has fallen prompting QPE to FFG ratios 
exceeding 200%, translating to a localized region of 6-hour 200 
year ARIs. As PWAT ranges from 1.5- 1.7" over the region in 
addition to a warm cloud depth of extending up to 6 km AGL based 
off the 12Z Fort Worth sounding, was not surprised to see 
efficient warm rain processes with these storms. 

Another hot and humid day is in store for North Central Texas today, 
as we remain under weak flow aloft with a broad longwave trough 
located to our south. Similar to the previous few days, we will 
continue the typical diurnal pattern of shallow low-level moisture 
mixing out with daytime heating as high temperatures will reach the 
upper 90s to near 100 degrees today. As dewpoints are expected to 
decrease into the mid to upper 60s, heat index values will range 
from 100 to 105 degrees which is just below heat index criteria, 
although individuals should make sure to stay hydrated especially
during any outdoor activities. 

Though coverage will be lower than yesterday, can expect a few 
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening 
hours with weak flow aloft and and sufficient destabilization with 
high resolution ensemble guidance showing 1000 J/Kg SBCAPE. Coverage 
will likely be highest in areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex 
where the greatest low-level moisture is with surface dewpoints in 
the low to mid 70s. These storms will be capable of producing heavy 
rain and frequent lightning, but also can't rule out a few sub-
severe wind gusts up to 50 mph as forecast soundings 20-25 degree 
surface dewpoint depressions. Similar to yesterday, most activity 
should be over by sunset as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. 

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with southerly winds ranging from 
5-10 mph and gusts peaking around 15-20 mph. As a result, overnight 
lows are again expected to remain quite balmy, with temperatures 
only dropping to near 80 degrees for the Metroplex, with mid to 
upper 70s elsewhere.

Thursday, expect drier conditions as 500 mb heights are around the 
85th percentile underneath the broad ridge that is encompassing most 
of the country. High temperatures are expected to approach the 100 
degree mark with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria as 
we continue the diurnal trend of mixing out boundary layer moisture 
through the afternoon, leaving dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. 
Overnight lows will again remain muggy under gusty conditions, with 
temperatures only dropping to around or just below 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The long term period will feature an amplifying mid-level ridge, 
with 500 mb heights increasing to 594 dam over the 4 Corners region 
by this weekend. This will result in high temperatures remaining 
around 5 degrees above average (climatology for DFW on Friday is 95 
degrees). Long term ensemble guidance is hinting at a weak surface 
front pushing to the south from an attendant surface low located 
over Southern Kansas, which may serve as a focal point for a few 
showers and thunderstorms across North Central Texas Saturday night 
into Sunday, however this will depend on how far south the front 
progresses. Confidence in spatial coverage of rainfall is uncertain 
at this time, but with PWAT values ranging from the 85th to 90th 
percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. 
In addition to weak flow aloft (around 5 knots at 500 mb), storms 
will likely be slow-moving which may introduce a flooding threat. 
Stay tuned for more details as this gets closer... With increasing 
precipitation chances and therefore cloud cover, can expect highs to 
cool down slightly to the mid-90s by early next week with rain 
chances each day as moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge.
Weak easterly mid-level flow may allow for a few sea-breeze
induced showers and thunderstorms to drift inland, mainly
impacting our southern and eastern counties in addition to 
stronger moisture return into North Central Texas. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Though isolated TSRA has developed southwest of the Metroplex,
TSRA is very unlikely at TAF sites (<10%) so have not included in
TAFs. VFR and south flow at 10-15 kts will prevail at all TAF
sites for the duration of this forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 102  81 100 /  10   0   0   0 
Waco                79  98  77  96 /  10   0   0   0 
Paris               77  96  78  95 /  10   0   0   0 
Denton              80 101  81 100 /  10   0   0   0 
McKinney            80 100  81  99 /  10   0   0   0 
Dallas              82 101  81 100 /  10   0   0   0 
Terrell             78  98  78  97 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           79  99  77  98 /  10   0   0   0 
Temple              77  98  76  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       77 100  77  99 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brauer
LONG TERM....Brauer
AVIATION...Darrah