301 
FXUS63 KFGF 201115
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low
  through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Clear skies prevail this morning across the region. Patchy
ground fog is being observed near Langdon and occasionally near
Fergus Falls. Overall, the forecast remains on track this
morning, with temperatures in the upper 40s and calm winds.

UPDATE
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The overall severe weather threat has ended across the region as
instability continues to wane and widespread subsidence starts
to take hold. This will give way to lingering showers through
the evening with the occasional lightning threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing remains in place over central Canada, placing
the Dakotas and Minnesota under zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft. Several shortwave troughs, including one notable
traversing the region this afternoon, will move through this
flow over our region into next week. This keeps bouts of shower
and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, including severe
storms this afternoon (more details below). 

However, shortwave ridging between shortwave troughs will allow
some reprieve from shower and thunderstorm chances, including 
one this weekend that promotes mostly dry conditions. Within 
this pattern, average to below average temperatures continue.

It isn't until mid to late next week ensemble guidance suggests
synoptic pattern change to more upper riding over the central
CONUS with the upper troughing in Canada diminishing and
migrating eastward. This would promote a general warming trend
away from below average temperatures toward average to above
average temperatures. This also introduces more widespread
instability into the region for potentially subsequent storms to
utilize. However at this time, confidence is too low to comment
on potential for severe storms mid to late next week other than 
there are no glaring signals for robust severe chances.

...Isolated severe storms this afternoon...

Shallow but stout shortwave trough and attendant surface
trough/cold front is traversing the region allowing showers and
storms this afternoon. While dew points only into the 50s and
temperatures remaining relatively cool into the 60s and low 70s,
there is unseasonably cold air aloft contributing to sufficient
instability to feed thunderstorms. Increasing wind speed with 
height will also help organize convection. This keeps main 
hazard of hail to size of quarters as the main threat. Couldn't 
rule out gusty winds to 60 mph either. This potential exists
mainly in west-central MN through 6 PM, but also into southern
Red River Valley.

Additionally, there is enough spin in the atmosphere (especially
along wind shift lines supplying ambient vertical vorticity for
updrafts to latch on to and tighten) to keep potential for 
brief weak tornadoes to develop, particularly toward central MN 
before 5 PM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
There is a low chance for patchy ground fog near KDVL this
morning; however, confidence is very low in coverage, thus will
leave it out of the TAFs at this time. Overall, minimal impact
potential through the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch