126 
FXUS65 KBOU 130604
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1204 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible today
  across the high country.

- Cooler temperatures today and Sunday behind a cold front.

- The best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be Sunday. 

- Temperatures warm back up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Westerly flow aloft will prevail over Colorado today as an upper 
level trough moves across the Northern Rockies. This will bring 
warm and dry conditions to the area today. Cross sections show a 
dry airmass with only few high-based cumulus clouds this 
afternoon. Gusty west winds, with gusts up to 40 mph, will prevail
over the mountains and mountain valleys. Highs this afternoon are
expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across northeast 
Colorado.   

A cold front associated with the upper level trough 
passing to our north will push south through the area Saturday 
morning. High temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler with 
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A slight increase in low 
level moisture is expected, though dew points will only reach the 
30s Saturday afternoon. A second surge of cooler air will increase
northeast winds late Saturday afternoon and evening leading to 
increased upslope flow. This is about the only source of lift, 
thus the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over 
the foothills and Palmer Divide. Limited instability and moisture 
combined with a somewhat capped airmass will make it difficult for
showers and thunderstorms to survive moving off the higher 
terrain. Cooler air and low level moisture continue to move in 
behind this second surge resulting in mostly cloudy skies and cool
temperatures come Sunday morning. Temperatures will struggle to 
get out of the 60s Sunday afternoon due to the cooler air and 
cloud cover. Expect a better chance for showers and thunderstorms 
over the foothills (mainly south of I-70) and Palmer Divide. The 
urban corridor again looks to be too cool and capped. A shortwave 
moving across Wyoming Sunday could help produce showers off the 
higher terrain, thus we will keep a chance for showers in the 
forecast. One thing to note, the last few model runs have 
significantly reduced rainfall chances for this weekend across 
northeast Colorado. 

For Monday, northwest flow aloft will prevail over the Central
Rockies as upper level ridge intensifies along the west coast.
Temperatures rebound with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
across northeast Colorado. Drier air returns, but there could be
enough lingering moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms
along and east of the Palmer Divide. Colorado will remain just on
the east edge of the ridge Tuesday through Thursday under
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures continue to warm Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s by
Wednesday. A shortwave trough passing north of Colorado will bring
a cold front to northeast Colorado sometime Wednesday. If the
front arrives late in the day, downslope flow ahead of the cold
front could push highs well into the 90s. If the cold front
arrives early in the day, highs may only reach the upper 80s. The
cold front should bring cooler temperatures for Thursday, any
relief from the heat will be short-lived as ridging moves over
Colorado. Chances for rainfall next week (Monday through Friday)
look very low, as ridging pushes the storm track north of Colorado
and subtropical moisture stays well south.  

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Drainage winds are starting to take hold across the TAF sites late
tonight. These winds should persist for a few hours before a cold
front, currently over central Wyoming, is expected to make its 
way across the TAF sites between 11Z-13Z this morning. Expecting 
winds to veer ahead of the cold front and turn to the north with 
gusts between 20-25kts possible as it passes. Winds are expected 
to maintain a north to northeasterly component through the 
remainder of the TAF period, with a secondary push/reinforcement 
of the NE winds expected between 21Z-23Z that will enhance winds 
with roughly 25-30kt winds possible along with some showers 
developing over the southern foothills and Palmer Divide that may 
make their way into the vicinity of all three TAF sites, though 
the best chances would be for KAPA/KBJC between 23Z to 2Z. CIGs 
are expected to start to lower with the showers, dropping down to 
around 5,000' to 6,000' AGL between 3Z to 6Z. Additionally, with a
few wildfires burning to the north, smoke is expected to make its
way into northeastern Colorado as the northeasterly winds 
persist. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke and mean near 
surface smoke show higher concentrations of smoke making it into 
KDEN/KBJC near sunrise Sunday morning. This could create some 
slant range visibility concerns at the tail end of this TAF 
period.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...9