942 
FXUS65 KBOU 050841
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
241 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 
 
- Warm today with a couple late day thunderstorms mainly south of
  Denver.

- Hot weekend ahead with high temperatures soaring into the mid
  90s across the I-25 Corridor and plains.

- An early season heat wave likely Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly
  lasting into Thursday of next week. Highs near 100 degrees
  possible across portions of the plains. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A weak cool front was pushing southward through southeast Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle in these wee morning hours. Given 
surface pressure rises are still organizing to the north, that 
front is expected to push across all of the plains early this 
morning. Only slight cooling can be expected today, however, as 
the front will be rather shallow and offset by warm air aloft and
plenty of morning sunshine. We will see boundary layer moistening,
but also some low level stability given the slightly cooler 
temperatures but still very warm airmass aloft. Thus, it will be 
hard to reach convective temperatures over the plains and for the 
most part they should stay capped off. However, the mountains and
elevated heat sources of the foothills and Palmer Divide will be 
more prone to surface based convection given expectations of dry 
adiabatic warming. Thus, we expect to see isolated high based 
convection originate in the early to mid afternoon hours there. 
Despite slight stability in the lower elevations, they will still
attempt to move eastward into the adjacent lower elevations with 
perhaps even the southern portions of metro Denver seeing an 
isolated late day or early evening storm, although gusty outflow 
winds would be more likely than any rain. 

Full on summer heat will arrive this weekend underneath upper
level ridging. We'll be essentially caught in between a weak 
upper low drifting north through the Southern and Central Plains 
and a deep mid latitude trough over the Pacific Northwest (PNW). 
That supports development of southwest mid level flow and warm 
advection. High temperatures will warm into the mid 90s over most 
of the plains, with potentially a few spots getting into the upper
90s (depending on any influence from the trough to our east). 
Denver's record for Saturday is 95F, and we should be very close 
to that. Sunday's is a bit warmer (98F). While we should stay just
shy of Heat Advisory criteria, the record/near record heat early 
in the season could put added stress on people who plan to be 
outside for a majority of the day. Stay hydrated and avoid 
strenuous outdoor activity during peak heating. 

We will see isolated high based convection once again on Saturday
as limited low/mid level moisture remains under the ridge. Sunday
should trend mostly dry. 

For Monday, we'll likely see a brief respite in the heat due to a
weak backdoor cold front - courtesy of the ejecting PNW trough. 

We're confident (>80% chance) that we'll be right back to the 
frying pan, however, for Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong ridge 
aloft will develop over the Central Plains while a trough moves 
into the western United States. That will lead to increasing 
southwest flow across Colorado, further warm advection, and 
downslope compressional warming. The combination of these factors 
will lead to record/near record heat. Denver's record high of 95F 
on Tuesday seems likely (60% chance) to be tied or broken, while 
the record high of 99F on Wednesday has a chance (20-30%) of 
being reached. Although recent greenup has been helpful, locally 
critical fire weather conditions may start entering the picture 
again if fuels dry sufficiently in the hot, dry, and windier
weather. 

In contrast to yesterday's models, there is now some uncertainty 
as to how long this heat wave will last, as both the latest EPS 
and GEFS have cooled things off for Thursday. There seemed to be 
better agreement with a quicker ejecting trough across the 
Northern Rockies. Whether this is just a one-off or a meaningful 
trend is yet to be seen, so something to watch in upcoming runs. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The last batch of virga has pushed off the mountains and is
dissipating, so we're returning to lighter and normal diurnal
winds from the SW to start this TAF period. We do expect a weak 
frontal push to arrive 11Z-13Z with a light northerly wind shift, 
at least at KDEN. Winds should then turn more NE-E through the day
and increase to speeds around 12 kts. The main concern for the 
TAF period will be potential for high based convection and 
outflows late in this TAF period - mainly from 23Z Friday to 03Z 
Saturday. We think the highest odds will be closer to the 
convection over the Palmer Divide, and thus have introduced a 
Prob30 of -SHRA and VRBG32kt for KAPA, while also adding enhanced 
TEMPO southerly gusts at KDEN for a portion of the evening - as 
that would be the most likely direction if we did see outflows off
the Palmer Divide convection. Otherwise look for persistent VFR 
with only SCT-BKN clouds above 16,000 ft MSL. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20