257 
FXUS63 KFGF 120357
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1057 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected Tuesday, and a
  Wind Advisory is in effect. There is a chance for strong wind
  gusts greater than 45 mph again Thursday as another front
  passes through region during the daytime and evening periods. 

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over parts of the region each afternoon Tuesday through
  Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon 
  and early evening for parts of eastern North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire on time, as RH has
increased and winds are dying down. Showers and thunderstorms 
continue to push eastward, now well east of the cold front that
sparked them. Riding in an area of 100 to 300 J/Kg of MUCAPE,
there is just enough instability for these storms to continue 
to produce lightning. Moving quickly to the east, they will push
out of our area sometime around 2 or 3 AM. 

UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A few quick updates to the forecast. The first is that the Red
Flag Warning was expanded into the Red River Valley on the MN
side through 8 PM. Winds and RH values have both reached the
threshold for critical fire weather, with RH values as low as
the mid teens. Conditions will improve after sunset as RH 
values recover.

Secondly, a narrow corridor of MUCAPE of up to 500 J/kg 
stretches northward across central ND, about two counties wide 
from west to east. With a cold front passing through providing
forcing and just enough moisture to work with, the environment
supports a thunderstorm or two to form. Over an hour ago, one 
such cell developed near the KMBX radar northeast of Minot. 
Rainfall amounts are meager under this storm (an NDAWN recorded 
0.06" in McHenry County), but erratic/elevated winds due to 
inverted V soundings and lightning are supported as this cell 
propagates eastward. There are signs of some CI attempts further
north in Bottineau County, and across the border into Manitoba,
CA as well. Throughout this evening, this activity will push 
into the Devils Lake Basin, eventually reaching the northern Red
River Valley after sunset, where waning instability should 
limit lightning/thunder potential in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Large scale pattern features strong ridging across the southwest
US, shortwave ridging over the Northern Plains ahead of a 
shortwave trough in west-northwest flow. A progressive quasi- 
zonal pattern will remain in place through early next week, with
warmer/above average temperatures through Saturday. Shortwave 
trough passages within this pattern will be fast moving, and 
deeper moisture return will tend to remain cutoff to the south 
of our region, lowering the potential for soaking rains or 
organized convection. Temperatures do begin to cool back to the 
60s after the warmer temperatures (70s/80s) late week. This is 
still within the lower bound of seasonal ranges. The main 
impacts will be related to the frontal passages with these 
shortwave this week and periods of dry/windy conditions (fire 
weather concerns and strong wind impacts).

...Strong winds this week...

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9am CDT to 7pm CDT Tuesday. 
Unidirectional flow within the increasing mixed layer in the post 
frontal air mass Tuesday will support strong wind gusts (45-55
mph) across much of the Red River Valley and locations west. 
ECMWF EFI is 0.8 along the Red River Valley into west central MN
(good indication of near Warning gust potential) and NBM 24hr 
gust probs show a signal for gusts 58mph+, though it is not a 
widespread signal. Stratus exiting/clearing west to east could 
complicate mixing for parts of northwest/west central MN. Based 
on current mixed layer winds/peak winds near the top of the 
mixed layer most locations should remain below warning criteria 
(58mph+), however a few gusts around that value could be 
expected. Uncertainty though regarding the areal extent, 
frequency, and location of those gusts lowered confidence in 
warning issuance. 

Thursday is another day to watch for potential strong wind impacts 
with another frontal passage as a trough moves into the region.
ECMWF EFI once again shows values 0.8 or higher and model mixed
layer winds support at least gusts in the 45-55 mph range once 
again. 

...Fire weather impacts this week...

Today: RH values from the upper teens to mid 20s are being
reported over much of the region this afternoon, with winds 
gusting 30 to 40 mph across eastern ND. Winds have been slower 
to increase in MN as expected but less frequent/localized gusts 
to 25 mph can be expected along the Red River Valley in MN (15 
to 20 mph east of the valley) before RH values recover this 
evening. Red Flag Conditions are expected to continue through 
early evening in ND and near critical conditions in 
northwest/west central MN.

Tuesday: Low cloud cover will initially delay the increase in 
temperatures and where it lingers limit potential daytime heating 
mixing in northwest MN. In central ND and parts of eastern ND 
clearing skies are expected and deeper mixing will support Tds 
falling below 40F. Where temperatures reach the upper 60s/lower
70s in ND RH values are likely to fall below 30%, and 
considering the stronger winds critical fire weather would be 
expected. This is most likely from parts of the Devils Lake 
basin to southeast ND, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued 
for the afternoon/early evening period. There is much less 
confidence in the northern Red River Valley of ND. RH values are
more likely to remain above 30% in our MN based on current 
data, however due to the strong winds near critical fire weather
conditions are still likely within the Red River Valley of MN 
and parts of west central MN as skies clear/temperatures 
increase. 

The rest of the week: Warm temperatures and low RH values 30% or 
lower are expected over at least parts of the region through 
Saturday. The lowest RH values of the week may be Wednesday,
however that day features the lightest winds. Thursday carries
the next best chance for Red Flag Conditions dependent on 
mixing heights (better chances may be in ND than in northwest 
MN).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A very complicated TAF period as showers, thunderstorms, MVFR
ceilings, and high winds all bring aviation impacts throughout
the next 24 hours. First, a thunderstorm west of KDVL looks to
remain DSTN over the next couple of hours as it tracks eastward.
However, additional shower activity is expected to develop over
the next hour or two, which will impact northern terminals this
evening into tonight. Southerly winds will decrease initially 
overnight, then increase rapidly out of the northwest later 
tonight into Tuesday morning as a cold front swings through. 
Wind gusts of well over 30 knots are forecasted from mid Tuesday
morning throughout Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, KGFK, KTVF 
and KBJI will have to deal with MVFR ceilings for varying 
lengths of time from late tonight into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings 
should burn off at KGFK by early afternoon and linger at KBJI 
throughout the afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty in 
if ceilings will break up at KTVF or not, as the terminal will 
likely ride the line much of the afternoon of persistent 
ceilings to the northeast and clearer skies to the south and 
west.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Rafferty