936 
FXUS64 KFWD 251925
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather will be possible across parts of North Texas
  today with areas along and north of I-20 to the Red River 
  having the highest chances for storms. Very large hail, damaging
  winds, and tornadoes will all be possible.

- An unsettled pattern will continue through next week with
  additional storm chances expected across the region,
  particularly Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The primary forecast challenge through the short-term period 
continues to be the convective initiation potential versus 
expected storm intensity, though confidence in at least scattered 
development has increased near the Red River. 

A quasi-stationary boundary across North Texas will gradually 
lift northward through the afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface low 
will deepen across northwest Texas with a dryline extended 
southward through Central Texas. This will result in a favorable 
triple point configuration near the Red River by late afternoon. 

Strong to locally extreme instability is expected to develop 
across the region with MLCAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg and steep 
mid-level lapse rates. While large-scale ascent remains modest at 
best, the approach of a shortwave trough and associated mid-level 
speed max will provide sufficient forcing for thunderstorm 
initiation, especially near the Red River (triple point).

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight areas along and  
north of the Red River in a Moderate Risk, with far North Texas 
residing along the southern fringe of this higher-end threat. 
Widely scattered thunderstorms are now expected to develop this 
afternoon into early evening, with the highest coverage near the 
Red River.

Given 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear, storms will quickly 
organize into intense supercells capable of producing very large 
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The tornado threat will be 
maximized near the warm front where locally enhanced low-level 
shear and backed surface winds will exist. 

Farther south, storm chances remain more conditional due to 
lingering capping along the dryline. However, the environment 
remains highly favorable, and any isolated storm that develops 
will have the potential to rapidly become severe. 

Through the evening hours, storms are expected to track east-
southeast along and south of the Red River. With time, some 
upscale growth into clusters is expected, resulting in an 
increasing threat for damaging winds as the cluster of 
thunderstorms moves from northwest to southeast. Storm chances 
will linger in the east through the night thanks to a slow- 
moving outflow boundary that will keep ascent over our eastern- 
most counties. 

The surface low responsible for the development of the triple
point will linger into Sunday, once again sharpening the dryline
in the afternoon. Abundant low-level moisture will be in place,
however, a lack of forcing for ascent will keep the chance of
storm initiation low. Some CAMs hint at a few convective attempts
across Central Texas in the afternoon, however, the capping
inversion will likely prevent the updrafts from rapid growth. For
now, we'll maintain storm chances across Central Texas at 10-15%.
The odds favor a precipitation-free day for North and Central 
Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. With a dryline persisting 
through the night and a shortwave moving overhead, a few isolated 
storms cannot be ruled out Sunday night into Monday morning. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday) 
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The active weather pattern will persist going into next week as
large-scale troughing continues to impact the western United
States. This will keep south to southwesterly flow in the lower-
levels, supplying continued moisture into North and Central 
Texas. The dryline will once again be draped from north to south 
across the region, keeping the threat of isolated thunderstorms 
alive in the afternoon. 

Rain chances will increase on Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front
slides south of of Oklahoma. This front will supply strong forcing
for ascent and a blossoming of showers and storms is becoming 
more probable Tuesday afternoon. Instability values above 3000 
J/kg and strong effective shear will increase the potential for
strong to severe storms. Exact location and timing is unclear 
this far out but areas east of I-35 may have the greatest threat. 

The cold front is expected to continue sliding southward by the
middle of the week, ushering in cooler temperatures areawide. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
with 60s and 70s to finish out next week. Passing shortwaves will
lead to periodic rain chances each day, with an overall low severe
weather threat. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Concerns: Afternoon thunderstorms developing N of D10. MVFR 
returns tonight. 

Thunderstorms are expected to develop north of D10 this afternoon
with vigorous updrafts likely. The bulk of this convective 
activity is expected to remain north of the TAF sites, however, 
there is about a 20% chance a storm gets within the vicinity of 
the North Texas TAF sites. Storms will be moving from northwest to
southeast this afternoon. There is also a low potential for 
temporary northeasterly winds this evening, however, this will be 
dependent on the location and proximity of the afternoon storms. 

Overnight, expect another northward surge in low-level moisture. 
MVFR is expected at all TAF sites early tomorrow morning, with 
improvements closer to noon. Winds will remain out of the south 
through tomorrow with no major storm chances tomorrow afternoon. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas east of
Jacksboro to Mineral Wells. Even if activation is not locally 
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National 
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  91  73  93 /  20  10  10  10 
Waco                71  90  71  90 /  10  10  10  10 
Paris               64  85  69  87 /  70  30  20  20 
Denton              67  90  71  93 /  30  10  10  10 
McKinney            68  89  72  92 /  40  10  10  10 
Dallas              71  93  73  93 /  30  10  10  10 
Terrell             70  88  71  91 /  30  10  10  20 
Corsicana           72  91  74  93 /  20  10  10  20 
Temple              70  91  71  91 /  10  10  10  10 
Mineral Wells       67  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez