338 
FXUS64 KLIX 231128
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
628 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 455 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- A warming trend will bring the area back to the mid 80s for
  highs by the end of the week and a chance at the low 90s early
  next week.

- The threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will increase
  going into the weekend as moisture increases. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night) 
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Hight temps will slowly move toward the mid 80s by the end of the
week. This will help with destabilizing the sfc enough to get some
diurnal activity started as we approach the end of this week. The
weak sfc trough from the gulf then inland just to our west will
also help by allowing the environment to not need so much 
forcing to get things going. This should start to occur today over
the western most portion of the area. A sfc low over NE TX will
pivot SEward before stalling but allowing plenty of sh/ts to
develop along the frontal boundary to its east. This complex will
propagate SE staying together by forcing from outflows and plenty
of moisture. These could make their way into the norther portion
of the area by Fri bringing us a chance of some moderate to heavy
rainfall and a marginal risk of severe storms late Fri afternoon 
into the evening. A weakness will then stall along the gulf coast
from Mobile to New Orleans then up to Baton Rouge into Alexadria.
This will help activity get started for Sat, but it may take a bit
of heating to get most of this started, which shouldn't be a
problem over the weekend. Sunday will show this weakness being
forced northward causing our precip numbers to fall back to where
they have been lately. But this won't last long as a front will
make its way closer to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The upper level flow through the long term period will remain more 
zonal or progressive across the CWFA as we will remain on the 
northern periphery of an H5 ridge over the Bay of Campeche. The 
higher heights, thicknesses, and gradually stronger sun angle along 
with a warm moist onshore flow will continue to suggest well above 
average temperatures with interior sections warming into the 90s 
most afternoons. As for rain, with the rich low level flow cannot 
rule out some convection late afternoon along any mesoscale boundary 
that develops across the forecast area...be a sea breeze, outflow, 
or lake breeze. Within the zonal flow over the region, any cold 
frontal boundary will struggle to slide southward toward our region. 
This is great news for the midsouth as they will get multiple rounds 
of rainfall as a surface front stalls in their vicinity. For our 
region we appear again mostly dry outside of any isolated afternoon 
diurnally driven convection that could develop Monday through 
Wednesday. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions expected for most of this taf cycle. Some low cigs 
providing IFR to MVFR conditions are possible over and around MCB to 
BTR around sunrise Fri. The highest prob for TSRA will be around
BTR and HUM today, so will try to time this in current pack.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

With high pressure now east of the coastal waters, wind have turned 
more southeasterly and are expected to turn southerly into the 
weekend. There will be little change in the surface pressure pattern 
through much of this week. A cold front will approach the area over 
the weekend, with some uncertainty whether it reaches the northern 
gulf waters. Whether or not it reaches the waters will play a role in 
how the winds react, but for now no marine hazards look likely.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TE