105 
FXUS63 KFSD 190858
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
358 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional elevated fire concerns will be possible by Monday 
  and again Wednesday as the warm and dry conditions persist.

- Limited precipitation chances will continue through Wednesday.

- Rain chances could return from late Wednesday to Thursday.
  However, some details remain uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Taking a look across the area, we're continue to see light returns 
develop on radar mainly in response to increasing dPVA and 
isentropic lift ahead of an approaching short wave. While we can't 
completely rule out a few sprinkles to flurries especially across 
southwestern MN through about 7-8 am, not expecting much in terms of 
measurable accumulations. From here, a beautiful spring day is ahead 
with highs mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s with mainly light 
northerly winds. Looking ahead, conditions will continue to trend 
warmer and drier through the midweek. As periodic breeziness 
continues intermittently, elevated fire concerns will return with 
the focus being on Monday and Wednesday. However, the greenness of 
fuels from recent rainfall could taper concerns for a bit. 
Otherwise, our next chances for rain will likely return from the 
second half of Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front progresses 
through the area. While recent runs of guidance have come into 
better agreement with the placement of features, soundings continue 
to show limited moisture and a decent cap in place which could 
hinder any stronger develop. Either way, these details will be 
subject to change so make sure to monitor your local forecast!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Very dry and windy conditions have brought another day of very
high/near critical fire danger to the area. While many of the 
fuels have begin to quickly green up, the warm season tall 
grasses are still lagging a bit and remain susceptible. Winds 
will slacken around and after sunset diminishing the near 
critical fire weather concerns. 

Later tonight a weak wave will track by mainly to the north, 
scraping by parts of highway 14 into southwest MN. This will likely 
bring through a short period of scattered rain/snow showers with 
accumulations remaining on the minimal side. As this system passes a 
weak cool front at the surface will sag south and keep temperatures 
on the cooler side again Sunday, albeit a bit warmer than today and 
right around the seasonal normals. Highs generally near 50 in 
southwest MN to near 60 along the Mo River Valley.

On Monday flow aloft flattens and brings in a westerly warmer shot 
of air in the low levels, with surface winds increasing from the 
south. Highs will push into the 70s in most locations with a few 80s 
in central SD. Once again, breezy and warm conditions coupled with 
dry air will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions 
to the area.

A weak front sags south on Tuesday dropping winds and alleviating 
fire weather concerns. Temperatures will again be warm with highs in 
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated on Wednesday with a 
few locations possibly creeping up towards record warm highs. Most 
records are hovering in the lower to mid 90s. One thing fighting 
reaching the record warm highs will be a south to slightly southeast 
potential for surface winds which usually does not support the 
deeper mixing needed to reach into the mid 90s. However, with 
southerly winds likely gusting to 30 to 40 mph near critical fire 
weather conditions are again expected.

The next potential weather maker for the area will be a deepening 
trough over the Central Rockies Thursday which should drift 
northeast into Friday. A bit better agreement amongst the models this 
time around in deepening this low in south central Canada Friday and 
then just kind of locking it in place across central Canada into the 
weekend. What this should mean is another warm day Thursday with a 
good chance a cold front moves into the area which will bring a 
threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Cooler 
temperatures also become much more likely Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Winds have weakened 
considerably across the area. Beginning to the light showers on 
radar move into the area near KBKX. Dry air in the low levels will 
prevent the bulk of the precipitation from reaching the surface. 
That said, sprinkles and flurries remain possible mainly along and 
northeast of a line from KBKX down to about KOTG. Mainly clear skies 
and light northerly winds is expected for the afternoon hours 
tomorrow. These light winds will finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Meyers