650 
FXUS63 KFGF 170446
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A swath of wintry precip (2-4" of snow) will fall tonight
  across northeast North Dakota with icing in northwest 
  Minnesota bringing minor travel impacts.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Heavy snow rates are already beginning to overcome the warm road
temps in far eastern MT/northwest SD/ southwest ND this evening
with slushy accumulations. As the band of expected heavy snow 
continues to work east along the SE periphery of the upper low 
in southern Saskatchewan heavy snow rates on the order of 1"/hr 
will overspread parts of central and northeast ND where a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for 2-4" of snow with any areas 
that see more stationary banding for a prolonged period perhaps 
seeing up to 6" on a very local basis. On the eastern half of 
the precip shield there will be a warm nose with mixed phase 
ptypes (sleet/freezing rain). Still seeing up to a 20% chance 
for a 0.10" or more of freezing rain within the advisory
counties. However road temps from Valley City to Crookston to 
Roseau and south per RWIS sites are all still sitting near or 
above 40 as of 9pm and thus there are doubts on if the majority 
of surfaces cool enough to see impacts from freezing rain in 
those areas of the advisory (bridges will cool faster and likely
be worse than surface roads.)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...Synopsis...

Mid/upper level pattern features a positively orientated trough
over the Northern Rockies, with a closed low near north central
Montana and southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. Deep southwest flow 
is in place ahead of this feature with a shortwave ridge axis 
orientated over southern MN into the Great Lakes. Fire weather 
impacts are ongoing within the current pattern ahead of a 
stalled frontal zone. The closed low to the west tracking 
through southern Manitoba through Friday will be responsible for
a wintry mix tonight, along with cooler/below average 
temperatures behind a strong cold front into this weekend. 
Ridging builds back across the western US then into the central 
US next week, with rising heights and eventual lee troughing 
along the Rockies supporting warmer temperatures across the 
Northern Plains along with deeper dry air. This pattern may 
support additional chances for fire weather impacts Tuesday and 
Wednesday next week. There is a signal for long wave troughing 
late next week into the weekend that could bring precipitation 
chances back to our region. At this time there is not a signal 
for winter impacts or heavy rain/severe thunderstorms in that 
pattern shift. 

...Wintry mix tonight through the Friday morning commute...

As the closed mid/upper low passes along/north of the US/Canada 
border an elevated baroclinic zone will pass into the region
where strong frontogenesis will support an area of wintry 
precipitation along with embedded banding primarily in northeast
ND and far northwest MN. This arrives as the main/stronger push
of CAA undercuts strong WAA loft resulting in a pronounced warm
nose over our CWA. Forcing weakening as it progresses east and 
northeast resulting in decreasing precipitation rates and 
coverage late morning into Friday afternoon, and lowering 
confidence in impacts over southeast ND and west central MN. 

Along this axis all precipitation types (freezing rain, sleet,
snow) could occur until the deeper cold pushes in aloft 
(behind the main axis of precipitation). Where more of a wintry 
mix occurs, accumulating sleet and freezing rain will cause 
light icing impacts and slick travel impacts through the Friday 
morning commute. Where banding correlates with deeper cold 
profiles primarily snow may lead to 2-3" of localized totals and
brief whiteout conditions due to gusty winds/falling snow. The 
main transition zone and track of the organized precipitation 
area as advertised by both NBM, HREF, and REFS is from Barnes 
County to Grand Forks Counties. HREF probs for a glaze of ice 
exceed 70% along this axis with 30-40% probs for 0.1" of ice. 
NBM probs are a bit lower, but still show a 70% neighborhood 
probability for at least a light glaze in northeast ND and far 
northwest MN. While there is a signal/chance for a wintry mix to
the south and east, confidence based on the current consensus 
supports advisory conditions primarily in northeast ND and 
northwest MN. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued from midnight
to 10am CDT where confidence is highest in travel impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Showers are ongoing in and around BJI and FAR with this
continuing through the next few hours with a few lightning
strikes surprisingly observed in the last few hours near BJI.
Snow moving in west to east in the next 6 hours for all but BJI
who will have to wait until the late morning for anything more
than on and off showers. MVFR is quickly overspreading ND sites
and will begin to impact MN sites by 12z with all sites 
reaching near IFR (sub 1500ft) and pockets of IFR (currently 
favoring DVL, TVF, and BJI) between now and noon. How persistent
these IFR ceilings are is unknown as they may jump around a bit
depending on precip rates. BLSN still looking possible in DVL 
through the early afternoon and especially during falling snow 
the next 6 hours. Freezing rain still looks to impact GFK, TVF 
and possibly FAR but lowest confidence with southward extent.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-004-
     005-007-008-013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT