174 
FXUS63 KAPX 050331
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1131 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air and accumulating lake effect snow showers likely Monday 
and Monday night. 

- Unsettled weather for the second half of the week with potentially 
some precipitation type issues once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Shortwave moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, helping to 
swing a cold front through northern Michigan.  In its wake, several 
upstream shortwaves will slide through a deepening upper level 
trough over the Great Lakes into early next week.  These waves will 
reinforce the cold air across the area, as well as provide lake 
effect snow shower chances. Temperatures will moderate some (at 
least closer to normal) by mid to late week, although 
additional shortwave energy likely brings precipitation chances 
back into the area as well. 

Primary Forecast Concerns and Details: 

Plenty of low level moisture in the wake of our departing surface low 
this evening, as a cold front slides across the area. Likely 
some drizzle and fog for a time before cold air advection 
strengthens overnight and slightly drier air arrives. Any 
lingering rain may turn to a little snow overnight. We likely 
get cold enough aloft toward Sunday morning for some light lake
effect/lake enhanced rain and snow shower activity in 
west/northwest flow areas. Shower coverage will be enhanced with
an uptick in 850-500mb moisture coinciding with the arrival of 
a weak upstream mid level wave during the morning. The snow 
likely won't amount to much, but minor accumulations will be 
possible over the higher terrain. Otherwise, a cold Easter 
Sunday with wind chills in the teens and 20s and scattered 
rain/snow showers through early afternoon. Some improvement in 
conditions by later Sunday with some sunshine and gradually 
decreasing winds. 
  
Better snow chances Monday and Monday night with the arrival of 
reinforcing cold air and embedded shortwave energy.  A modified 
arctic airmass takes hold on Monday, with falling temperatures and 
increasing overlake instability (is this April?).  Would not be 
surprised to see a few inches of accumulation in some areas 
(especially interior higher terrain). Beyond this, the active 
weather continues, with the next round of precipitation arriving
midweek with additional p-type issues as warmer air makes a 
push toward the Great Lakes. This looks more like a snow to 
rain transition - not the freezing rain we have seen more 
recently. The pattern remains unsettled through the end of the 
week with temperatures returning toward more seasonable norms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Mixture of MVFR to VFR conditions early this morning. Cigs 
continue to rise and scatter out this afternoon, with VFR 
conditions by later in the day into this evening. Still some 
lingering mist/drizzle early this morning, transitioning to 
very light and scattered lake effect snow showers through the
morning before ending. Gusty southwest winds become gusty 
northwest today. Winds become light tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB