762 
FXUS63 KFGF 130347
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light freezing rain is expected in portions of northwest 
  Minnesota during the early overnight period. Best chances will
  be around Lake of the Woods, eastern Roseau County, and 
  northern Beltrami County.

- Winter impacts are possible Thursday into Friday as a system
  brings snow and wind into the area. There is a 60 percent
  chance for advisory level impacts or greater, especially in
  the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Some UP reports are starting to crop up in the far northern Red
River Valley as forcing for ascent increases. Temperatures
remain above freezing, however, across northeast North Dakota so
impacts should remain fairly mild up there. As you progress
eastward, temperatures are above freezing but that is likely to
increase as warm air advection pushes eastward. Having said
that, it remains unclear how much, if they do, temperatures will
get above freezing. For this reason, the current advisory works
out for the locations most likely to remain below freezing, so
no changes to headlines on this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 648 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Skies remain mostly dry right now but that will change as the
wave ejecting off of central Manitoba continues to drape warm
air advection across the region. Freezing rain and snow remain
expected in the eastern most counties of our CWA overnight with
a glaze of ice expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

...Synopsis...

Warm air advection prevails this afternoon through Tuesday, bringing 
moisture into the mid levels and allowing surface temps to climb to 
near or just above freezing. A brief period of light rain is 
expected tonight across the northern Red River Valley and northwest 
Minnesota. Freezing rain is expected during the early overnight 
period around Lake of the Woods and adjacent counties before temps 
climb towards the low 30s. Heading into Tuesday, temps continue to 
rise ahead of a cold front that will move southward during the 
afternoon. Much colder temperatures return Tuesday night, with lows 
in the single digits either side of zero for most locations. For 
Wednesday, highs reach the single digits from the Red River Valley 
eastward, with warm air advection bringing temps into the 20s for 
areas west of the Valley. Another unsettled period of weather 
returns for Thursday and Friday as H5 flow becomes northerly. A 
strong shortwave traverses the flow Thursday, bringing a chance for 
light to moderate snow. This will be followed closely by a 
reinforcing surge of cold air, as well as another chance for mainly 
lighter snow on Friday. 

...Light Freezing Rain Tonight...

Moisture will overrun cooler air tonight into Tuesday, with light 
rain and freezing rain expected across portions of northwest 
Minnesota. Temperatures will be on the rise through the overnight 
period; however, with lows starting in the upper 20s, a light glaze 
of ice is expected during the early overnight hours. This should 
mainly impact Roseau, Lake of the Woods, and Beltrami Counties, 
however, patchy light freezing rain is possible further south.

...Winter Impacts Possible Thursday and Friday...

A two-part system will bring a chance for snow and blowing snow 
Thursday into Friday. Upper flow turns northerly on Thursday, with 
light to moderate snow expected in association with the H5 
shortwave. At this time, there is a 60 percent chance for at least 
advisory impacts, especially as we head into Friday. Gusty northwest 
winds on Thursday will shift to more of a north to northwest 
direction on Friday, with sustained winds ranging from 25-30 mph and 
gusts well into the 40-50 mph range. While blowing snow will be 
possible, the highest impacts are expected where strong winds and 
falling snow coincide. Visibility will be reduced where this occurs, 
bringing a moderate to high potential for travel impacts 
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Not many changes were made to this TAF issuance as the forecast
generally remains on track. The main addition is PROB30 groups
for TVF and BJI for potential freezing rain to mix into rainfall
that is expedcted to move from northwest to southeast through
the evening and overnight period. All TAF sites should remain
generally as rain, although those two sites have the greatest
probability for a changeover.

Flight category-wise, VFR conditions should prevail through the
evening and early morning period with eventual lowering of
ceilings to MVFR mid to late morning, getting to IFR at BJI.
There are signals for this to clear out as a weak front moves
through in the afternoon, but confidence in this is low at this
point, so for now it is being held onto through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ005-006-
     008-009-016-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux