022 
FXUS64 KFWD 231126
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
526 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures are
  expected through the rest of the week, including Christmas Eve 
  and Christmas Day.

- There is increasing confidence in a return to normal
  temperatures by the beginning of next week.
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

An unseasonably warm and humid airmass continues to remain in
place across the entire region. Southerly winds of 5-15 mph will
continue to draw up very moist air from the Gulf, with dew points
well into the 60s. Ample moisture in the boundary layer in
conjunction with subsidence aloft owing to our synoptic scale
ridge/high pressure system will set the stage for morning stratus
to build in overnight and last through the morning hours this
week, especially for locations south of I-20 and east of US-281.

Forecast soundings show the morning saturated layer to be under 1
km deep, which all but negates any potential for drizzle. Instead,
expect areas of patchy fog to develop between 3 AM and 9 AM CDT.
With the persistent return of moisture throughout the day on
Tuesday, Wednesday morning fog looks to be more widespread and
potentially denser, especially for portions of Central Texas and
the Brazos Valley. Areas of fog in this region may feature 
visibilities at or below 1 mile, becoming less dense and more 
patchy in coverage with northward extent towards the I-20 
corridor. Any fog/stratus that is able to develop during the 
overnight hours should burn off by the early afternoon. 

The upper-level ridge currently in place continues to be 
exceptionally deep, with 500 hPa heights approaching 590 dm 
(typical 500 hPa heights for June and early September). At the
surface, this will manifest itself as continued near-record high 
temperatures for this time of year. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday 
are expected to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with the warmest
temperatures west of the I-35 corridor. There is some uncertainty
with exact high temperatures for areas south of I-20 and east of 
US-281 due to morning cloud cover. Clouds that linger longer than 
expected may result in observed high temperatures 2-5 degrees 
lower than forecast. Regardless, even these less likely lower 
temperatures would be ~15 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Upper-level ridging will dominate the pattern aloft through the
end of this week and into the weekend bringing continued well-
above normal and near record to record high temperatures. High 
temperatures Thursday through Saturday will likely be in the low 
and mid 80s across the region, with the warmest temperatures 
expected on Friday. The breakdown of expected highs and daily 
records during this time frame can be found below this discussion.

By the end of this weekend, there is an increasing signal for a
cold front to move through bringing a return of average 
temperatures for the New Year. While run to run consistency has 
been lacking, lending to considerably uncertainty with regards to 
the timing and magnitude of this cold front, I am cautiously 
optimistic that by Monday highs will have returned to the 50s with
mornings lows at the start of next week dipping back down into 
the 30s. More progressive solutions bring this cold front through 
Saturday night, while slower guidance holds it off until around 
mid-day Sunday. Regardless of the details, it looks like there is 
light at the end of the tunnel for this anomalous December warmth.

Dallas/Fort Worth

Thursday 12/25: 80	(Record of 82 set in 2021)
Friday 12/26: 	84 	(Record of 83 set in 2008)
Saturday 12/27:	82	(Record of 82 set in 2005)

Waco

Thursday 12/25:	77	(Record of 82 set in 2021)
Friday 12/26:	82	(Record of 84 set in 2016)
Saturday 12/27:	80	(Record of 85 set in 2005)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A somewhat chaotic and unpredictable evolution of the stratus this
morning lends substantial uncertainty to cigs at DFW TAF sites the
next few hours. Clearing in the stratus deck from west to east
should bring SCT or FEW at 015 to DFW TAF sites no later than 
1230Z. Transient patches of MVFR stratus will continue to meander 
across the area, so have included a TEMPO group at Metroplex 
sites through 14/15Z for now. IFR ceilings have also failed to 
materialize, so have subsequently removed from the TAFs. MVFR cigs
have shown to be much more persistent, and should continue to be
so further south (KACT). Stratus should clear by this afternoon 
before another deck of MVFR/IFR cigs builds in from the south 
again tonight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  64  78  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                78  65  77  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               74  63  75  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              79  62  78  58 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            78  64  77  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              79  64  78  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             77  65  76  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           79  66  76  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              79  64  76  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       81  61  79  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah