854 
FXUS64 KFWD 222316
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
516 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average and near-record warm temperatures will continue 
  through the rest of the week, including Christmas Eve and 
  Christmas Day.

- Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return during the latter 
  half of the upcoming weekend into early next week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Southerly flow has returned to North and Central Texas, beginning
an extended warming trend that will last through the remainder of
the week. Low stratus along and south of I-20 will continue to
lift and scatter out this afternoon as temperatures rise into the
70s region-wide. Another round of low stratus and patchy fog/mist
will shift over much of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning
with cloud cover lingering well into tomorrow afternoon. Expect a
relatively warm and humid night tonight with morning lows in the 
mid 50s to mid 60s and afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s 
Tuesday afternoon as mid/upper ridging builds over the Southern 
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Strong high pressure will settle over the Southern Plains by
midweek allowing for a rinse-and-repeat forecast of above-average
temperatures and no rainfall through at least Saturday. Expect 
afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s every day through the 
end of the week, 15-30 degrees above-normal for the end of 
December. We are currently forecasting near-record high 
temperatures Christmas Day (Thursday) through the first half of 
the weekend, with the warmest day on Friday where a few locations 
west of I-35 may approach 90 degrees during the afternoon (10% 
chance).

Confidence is increasing that a pattern change will occur during
the latter half of the upcoming weekend with a potential cold
front bringing cooler temperatures and low rain chances to the
region Sunday into early next week. 75% of the current ensemble
suite of guidance highlights strong FROPA early Sunday with high 
temperatures dropping back into the 50s and 60s early next week. 
It does not currently look like a washout, with the best chances 
(20-30%) for light rainfall during the day Sunday east of I-35.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected this evening with scattered clouds
around 2.5k ft and south winds up to 12 kts. Overnight, MVFR cigs
will spread across all airports in the 07-09Z timeframe, with 
tempo IFR conditions at D10 airports and tempo LIFR at ACT 
between 10-15Z. Cigs expected to improve to MVFR after 14-16Z and
return to VFR around 18-19Z tomorrow. South winds up to 12 kts 
are expected tonight into Tuesday morning, with southerly winds 
increasing to 12-16 kts with a few higher gusts Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                64  78  62  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               61  75  60  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              59  78  58  77 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            61  77  60  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              63  79  62  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             63  77  60  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           66  79  62  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              61  79  60  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       57  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Shamburger