191 
FXUS64 KFWD 211834
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1234 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average and near-record warm temperatures return Monday,
  and continue through the rest of the week, including Christmas 
  Eve and Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Widespread cloud cover continues across North and Central Texas 
midday as moisture has wrapped around the slow moving low, 
gradually sagging southward towards the Texas Coast today. This 
cloud cover kept conditions a bit warmer than anticipated this 
morning, and will be the biggest factor in temperatures this 
afternoon. Pockets of sunshine breaking through the low clouds 
will keep some locations much warmer than others, with current
temperatures in the low 50s to upper 60s. The warmest locations 
today will be across the southeast where a bit more favorable 
clearing from the stratus and positioning of the surface low will 
allow temperatures to climb into the low 70s. Even though it's 
cooler today (and the coolest day of the upcoming week), 
temperatures near and east of I-35 are still around 5 to 10 
degrees above seasonal norms. 

Near zonal flow will continue aloft tonight while the surface high 
pressure across the Midwest shifts east. South winds will gradually 
return as a result, with continued low-level moisture supporting 
widespread cloud cover again tonight. These conditions will keep 
tonight similar to this morning's lows in terms of a temperature 
spread, with upper 40s to upper 50s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

An anomalously strong mid and upper level ridge will be planted over 
the South-Central U.S. this week with little to no change in 
conditions Monday through the following several days. The warmer
conditions kick off tomorrow with highs returning to the 70s
areawide, with readings in the low 80s by Tuesday for those west
of U.S. 281. Temperatures will be pretty consistent midweek, with
day to day changes only a couple of degrees warmer/cooler for any
given site, as the ridge dominates our prevailing weather. NAEFS 
and ECMWF percentiles are maxed out for 200 mb and 500 mb heights,
with these heights forecast to be three standard deviations 
higher than normal. While record highs are unlikely to be at stake
for most of the week (~30% chance or less), Friday will really be
the day to watch as ridging becomes amplified with W/SW low level
wind ahead of a potential weekend system. DFW's record for the 
26th is 83, and currently has a 60% chance of at least tying the 
record. Waco's record is 84, and similarly has a 50% chance of at 
least tying the record. Otherwise, the nights will also be 
unseasonably warm with a couple of record warmest lows possible 
for DFW, with a record of 60 degrees on the 23rd and 24th forecast
to be broken by a low of 61 both days. Like mentioned in the 
previous forecast discussion, Christmas Day itself will still be 
among the warmest on record, with the current forecast on track 
to tie for third warmest at DFW (78 degrees) and to become the 4th
warmest for Waco (77 degrees). 

Model spread increases this weekend and into early next week as
the stout ridging deamplifies and a system approaches the Desert 
Southwest. Quite a bit of uncertainty understandably exists with 
the timing and magnitude of any cold front/potential rain chances
for Days 7 and beyond. The airmass with this system doesn't have 
any notable signal for significant "winter" cold, but may help 
return conditions to more seasonable for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Deteriorated flying conditions continue across the region as of
midday with MVFR cigs persisting across D10 and the IFR cigs at 
Waco likely to linger the next couple of hours before improving to
MVFR. OVC skies will become BKN this afternoon with a few
gaps/pockets within the MVFR stratus and a low potential for any
site to briefly turn low-end VFR for an hour or two late this
afternoon and early evening, before a more solid blanket of MVFR
and IFR develops and spreads northward overnight. Have included a
TEMPO for IFR cigs for the D10 sites from 10/14Z, with MVFR cigs
otherwise prevailing overnight and tomorrow morning. Should see a
brief window late morning/early afternoon of SCT020-050 before
transitioning to SKC. For Waco, there is much less confidence on
the extent and duration of IFR ceilings, with adjustments likely 
needed based on latest model trends through the rest of today. 
Trends should be similar overall to the Metroplex sites, but there
is a low potential that IFR conditions skirt just east of the 
airport. Otherwise, N/NE winds this afternoon will gradually 
return to southerly for D10 and SWerly for Waco through the period
with speeds anywhere from 5 to 10 kts. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  73  61  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                54  74  63  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               49  69  58  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              49  72  56  78 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            51  71  59  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              54  74  61  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             52  72  61  77 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           56  75  63  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              51  74  61  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       48  76  56  81 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gordon
LONG TERM....Gordon
AVIATION...Gordon