687 
FXUS64 KFWD 211104
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
504 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average and near-record warm temperatures will return
  Monday, continuing through most of the upcoming week, including
  Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1258 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

After a hot Saturday across North and Central Texas, today will be
much cooler with a cold front continuing to slowly progress
southward. As of midnight, the front has moved through all of
North Texas, slowly oozing southward into Central Texas. Ahead of
the front, patchy fog will has developed given the presence of 
abundant moisture.

Behind the front, northerly winds will persist generally between
10-15 mph. In addition, a shroud of low clouds is now developing,
keeping insolation low today. Afternoon highs will stay in the mid
50s to mid 60s across much of the region. Tonight, temperatures
will be in the 40s and 50s with light northerly winds gradually
turning and becoming southerly by sunrise Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Heading into Christmas week, an area of low pressure will be
deepening across Nebraska early Monday morning. This will lead to
a rapid northward mass response. With southerly winds in place,
warm air advection will quickly warm up North and Central Texas
into the 70s areawide. Even with the increasing moisture across 
the region, precipitation is not expected as strong forcing for 
ascent will be lacking. 

A dome of high pressure will be building across the Southern
Plains, keeping the active weather away from the region. 
Temperatures Tuesday through next weekend will range from the mid 
70s to lower 80s, including Christmas Eve and Christmas day. 
Similarly, overnight lows will be in the 50s. Looking back at 
previous Christmas Days -- this year will go down as one of the 
warmest on records. Given the current forecast, we continue to 
forecast a tie for 3rd warmest on record. Should forecast highs 
continue to creep up, the 2nd or even the warmest Christmas on 
record is within reach. Record highs for both the DFW Metroplex 
and Waco stand at 82 degrees. Latest NBM probabilities suggest a 
20-30% chance of exceeding that 82 degree mark. 

As if that wasn't warm enough, Friday will be even warmer with
widespread temperatures in the 80s. The warmth will continue well
into next week with little shift in the area of high pressure. If
this is too warm for your liking, there continues to be evidence
for a potential pattern change as we approach the last few days of
2025, bringing the region back to more normal winter-time
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The low cloud cover has developed as expected, stretching across
all of North Texas and parts of Central Texas. Northerly winds 
are now in place area wide with the passing of a cold front. The 
low clouds are expected to continue across the region through 
tomorrow, with some variation between MVFR and IFR expected. 

For DFW Metroplex airports, the majority of the time in this
forecast will be spent in MVFR. There is a chance that IFR impacts
the terminals tomorrow morning as a warm front moves north. At
KACT, IFR is likely going to impact the terminal this morning as
low clouds, mist and fog move across the area. Some improvements
are expected after 16z as conditions return to MVFR. Tonight,
expect winds to return out of the south as the warm front advances
north. This will also increase the potential for IFR at KACT
through the end of the forecast cycle. 

Areawide improvements look to commence beyond the 24-hour period
of this TAF cycle. Much drier air will likely arrive beyond 18z
tomorrow, returning conditions to VFR across the region. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  50  72  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                63  50  73  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               57  49  70  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              59  47  72  56 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            59  49  71  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              61  52  73  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             61  51  72  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           67  55  75  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              64  49  75  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       59  46  77  55 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez