113 
FXUS64 KFWD 201745
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record high temperatures are expected today with elevated
  fire weather conditions developing along and west of Highway 
  281 this afternoon. 

- A cold front will drop temperatures 10-20 degrees on Sunday. 

- Above-average temperatures will then return Monday, continuing 
  through most of the upcoming week, including Christmas Eve and 
  Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Low stratus will continue to diminish in coverage east of I-35
this afternoon as south-southwest winds nudge temperatures upward
into the 70s regionwide. Heating will be strongest west of I-35 in
the drier airmass where several locations will likely inch into
the low to mid 80s this afternoon. We are currently forecasting
near-record/record-tying temperatures at KDFW and KACT this
afternoon, highlighting the anomalous nature of the temperatures
across North and Central Texas today. Elevated fire weather
conditions are likely along and west of Highway 281 this 
afternoon and evening where relative humidity will fall into the 
15-25% range amid 20+ mph wind gusts.

A cold front currently situated across southwestern Oklahoma will
continue to shift south this afternoon reaching our Red River
counties around 4PM, the I-20 corridor and the Metroplex around
6-7PM, and finally our Central Texas counties by 10-11PM tonight.
Breezy north winds will usher in a cooler airmass with
temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across the
northwestern half of our forecast area by early Sunday morning.
Post-frontal stratus will fill in across much of the region Sunday
morning inhibiting more widespread insolation and supporting
afternoon highs in the 50s to mid 60s across much of North and
Central Texas (10-20 degrees cooler than Saturday). Some high-
resolution guidance is more bullish on temperatures remaining in
the upper 40s to mid 50s tomorrow, and our forecast highs may have
to be tailored in future forecast updates to account for this
trend. No rain is in the forecast with this frontal passage, but a
few sprinkles and some patchy fog will be possible east of I-35
early Sunday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Beyond Sunday, mid/upper ridging will take hold over the Southern
Plains leading to an extended period of anomalously warm
temperatures across North and Central Texas. South winds will
return by Monday morning in response to pressure falls in the lee
of the Rockies, nudging temperatures back into the 70s areawide 
by Monday afternoon. A rinse-and-repeat forecast is then expected 
through the remainder of the week with overnight lows in the mid 
50s to mid 60s and afternoon highs in the 70s and low 80s, 
including the Christmas Holiday. We are currently forecasting a 
high temperature of 78 degrees at DFW Airport on Christmas Day 
(would tie for the 3rd warmest Christmas on record!). All this to 
say, no White Christmas is expected this year :(

Confidence is high that these above-average temperatures will
continue through at least next Saturday, the 27th. However,
ensemble guidance continues to highlight a pattern change and a
shift back to cooler temperatures in the December 28-30 
timeframe. Fingers crossed! 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight at all North and 
Central Texas terminals. South-southwest winds at 10-15 kts 
gusting to 25 kts at times will continue through the next several 
hours before a cold front currently situated over southwestern 
Oklahoma shifts into North Texas. Expect FROPA and a northerly 
wind shift within the Metroplex at ~00Z-01Z this evening and at 
KACT ~05-06Z tonight. Post-frontal MVFR stratus will fill in 
across much of North Texas and parts of Central Texas early Sunday
morning and linger through the end of this TAF period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  58  50  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                48  61  49  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               48  57  48  70 /   0   0  10   0 
Denton              42  58  45  72 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            46  58  49  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              48  60  51  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             49  61  51  73 /   0  10  10   0 
Corsicana           52  65  53  75 /   0   0  10   0 
Temple              47  62  46  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       41  57  44  76 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld