097 
FXUS64 KFWD 200700
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will develop along and west of
  Highway 281 this afternoon. 

- Near-record high temperatures are forecast across the area today,
  with abnormal warmth continuing through most of the upcoming 
  week, including Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

With another blustery and warm day in store, the main weather
concern today will be the elevated fire weather threat west of 
Hwy 281 in North and Central Texas. Areas east of Hwy 281 will be 
breezy, however, higher relative humidity values will lower the 
overall wildfire threat. 

Temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s along and
west of I-35. This will likely be a record-breaking warm day for
several parts of North and Central Texas. Record highs for today
currently stand at 79 and 78 in Dallas/Fort Worth and Waco 
respectively. Both locations will be close to tying or breaking 
the record high this afternoon. 

The reason for today's hot temperatures will be two fold. First,
southwesterly surface winds typically mean warm days as air 
gradually descends from the slightly higher terrain of West Texas.
Additionally, compressional warming will also occur as a shallow 
cold front inches closer to our region late this afternoon. This 
front will initially cross the Red River around 4, reaching the 
I-20 corridor by 6pm. The front will progress through much of the
region through the rest of the evening, yielding overnight 
temperatures in the 40s and 50s across much of the area. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Saturday evening's cold front will usher in cooler weather that
will persist into Sunday. Compared to today's high temperature 
forecast, Sunday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s -- 
fitting for the first day of astronomical winter. Cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies can be expected along with the cooler weather, 
making for a good day to enjoy that hot chocolate before making 
the switch to iced peppermint mocha as we begin Christmas week. 

Sunday's post-frontal airmass will begin retreating northward
Sunday night in response to a deepening area of low pressure 
across the Central Plains. With southerly winds back in full force
on Monday, afternoon temperatures will quickly surge into the 70s
across the region. By Tuesday, highs in the 80s can be expected 
west of I-35 where the dry airmass will more readily warm up in 
the afternoon. 

With the area of high pressure atop Texas in full control of the
weather, no precipitation is in the forecast. Temperature 
variability will remain minimal Tuesday onward with similar highs 
and lows each day. This should set the stage for a rather warm 
Christmas with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 
80s.

Beyond this week, there continues to be a hint at a pattern change
the last 2-3 days of 2025. There is a high degree of uncertainty
in the forecast to confidently predict whether we'll continue to 
experience well above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

High clouds are currently streaming across the North Texas sky
with light southerly surface winds in place. Winds at 2-3 kft AGL
are much stronger, ranging between 45-55 kts in response to a 
developing area of low pressure in Kansas. The ongoing low-level 
wind shear is likely to persist through the early morning hours 
before the elevated winds subside later this morning. 

The winds just above the surface will draw a plume of low clouds 
across East Texas with the western-most extent of the clouds 
reaching KACT this morning. The low clouds will not last very 
long as they retreat eastward by 16z. The rest of the day will be
breezy with gusts approaching 25 kts through the afternoon.

A cold front will be moving across the North Texas TAF sites
around 00z this evening, ushering northerly to northeasterly 
winds through the duration of the TAF cycle. For Waco, the front 
will likely move over the terminal closer to 08z, therefore, a 
wind shift will be added in the next TAF issues. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  47  61  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                79  49  64  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               71  50  58  49 /   0   0   0  10 
Denton              78  42  60  47 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            76  47  61  50 /   0   0  10   0 
Dallas              78  49  63  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             76  50  64  51 /   0   0  10  10 
Corsicana           77  54  68  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              80  48  65  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       84  41  59  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez