AFOS product AFDFWD
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD
Product Timestamp: 2025-12-19 06:40 UTC

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FXUS64 KFWD 190640
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1240 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An elevated fire weather threat is expected west of I-35 today,
  then again on Saturday due to above normal temperatures, low 
  humidity, and gusty winds. 

- Near-record high temperatures are forecast across the area on
  Saturday, with abnormal warmth continuing through most of the 
  upcoming week, including the Christmas holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will rebound nicely
this afternoon as southerly winds return to the region. The cold 
air that arrived after yesterday's front will retreat northward, 
leading to afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. The 
tightening of the surface pressure gradient will yield another 
breezy afternoon along and west of I-35. Winds will range between 
15-20 mph with gusts closer to 30 mph. 

The main concern today will be the elevated fire weather 
conditions west of I-35 due to the combination of breezy winds and
low relative humidity. With dormant fuels in place, the threat for
fires to spread will increase. Winds will gradually decrease after
sunset, diminishing the fire threat areawide. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A warm Saturday is in store across North and Central Texas as
afternoon temperatures soar into the 70s and 80s. This unusual 
warmth is due to strong southwesterly flow, aiding in 
compressional warming as air rolls down the slightly higher 
terrain of West Texas and northern Mexico. With record high 
temperatures sitting at 79 and 78 in Dallas/Fort Worth and Waco 
respectively, temperatures will approach, if not exceed record 
values for some. For DFW, the odds of climbing above 79 degrees 
remain below 40%, however, the odds of climbing above 78 degrees 
at Waco are now around 80%. 

The well-above normal temperatures will temporarily come to an end
Sunday as a cold front slides south into our region. This front 
will remain shallow in nature with it likely stalling somewhere 
across Central Texas. This means highs across North Texas will be 
in the upper 50s to lower 60s while Central Texas temperatures 
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. 

As we begin Christmas week, the well-above normal temperatures 
will return and continue through the rest of the week. 
Temperatures by Christmas will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 
If you were dreaming of a white Christmas, you'll have to keep 
dreaming for at least another year. Given the latest guidance, our
forecast highs would tie for the 3rd warmest Christmas on record.
This may change as we continue through the week, however, given 
the strong ridging in place, significant temperature swings are 
unlikely. 

When might this warm pattern change? The long-term guidance is
hinting at a potential pattern change the last few days of 2025
with cooler weather arriving. However, given this is still 10-12
days out, confidence is far too low to begin advertising a cool
down.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Clear skies and northwesterly winds are ongoing at all TAF sites.
Winds will continue to gradually decrease through the early 
morning hours before becoming southerly after sunrise.

Gusty southerly winds will become the main weather concern for
aviators today with gusts approaching 25 kts between 20z through
00z. As the sun sets across North and Central Texas, winds will
diminish and settle around 8 kts. No precipitation, wind shifts or
low clouds are anticipated within the TAF cycle. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  48  76  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                65  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               59  44  70  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              63  45  77  43 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            62  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              65  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             64  45  75  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           67  48  78  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              67  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       69  46  84  42 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez