992 
FXUS64 KFWD 182356
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
556 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginally elevated fire weather threat is expected west of
  Highway 281 tomorrow and Saturday due to above normal 
  temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds. 

- Near-record high temperatures are forecast across the area on
  Saturday, with abnormal warmth continuing through most of the 
  upcoming week, including the Christmas holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A cold front continues to move through the area this afternoon,
bringing breezy/gusty northerly winds in its wake around 15-25 mph
with higher gusts. We should remain just below Wind Advisory
criteria this afternoon, with the exception of a few isolated
areas along the I-35 corridor that could briefly meet criteria.
This should remain isolated though, so we will hold off on 
issuing a Wind Advisory at this time. The air behind the front 
isn't much cooler, so temperatures will remain fairly steady in 
the low to mid 60s behind the front through the afternoon. Highs 
will reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s in Central Texas where 
the front will arrive a bit later. Drier air will be the most 
notable change behind the front, with relative humidity falling to
15-25%. Combined with the breezy winds, the fire weather threat 
will be slightly elevated along and west of Highway 281 for the 
remainder of the day.

Winds will become light late this evening into the overnight
hours. A cooler night is on tap, mainly as a result of optimal
radiational cooling due to the dry air, light winds, and clear
skies. Overnight lows will fall into 30s across the region, with a
few isolated areas dipping just below freezing across our rural
north/northwest. South/southeast winds will resume Friday 
morning, but moisture will be slow to return. A slightly cooler 
day is expected for most of the region, with afternoon highs 
mostly in the 60s. Low humidity and breezy south winds will result
in a marginally elevated fire weather threat again Friday
afternoon along and west of Highway 281.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

We'll be riding a temperature roller coaster over the weekend 
into next week, with no chances for rain for the next 7 days. 
Breezy south/southwest winds are expected to develop on Saturday 
as a cold front approaches from the north. Compressional warming 
ahead of the front will allow temperatures to soar into the mid 
70s to mid 80s, with the warmest temperatures occurring west of 
the I-35 corridor. High temperature records will be threatened at 
both of our climate sites (DFW Airport and Waco) Saturday 
afternoon. Based on latest NBM probabilities, there is a 40-50% 
chance of breaking the 15 year old high temperature record of 79 
degrees at DFW Airport, and a 60-70% chance of breaking the 47 
year old record of 79 degrees at Waco. 

The front will bring a brief cool-down on Sunday, though
temperatures will still remain slightly above normal. Temperatures
will quickly rebound on Monday, with warm weather sticking around
throughout the week as an anomalously strong upper level ridge
becomes established across the southern CONUS and Gulf Coast
states. If you were hoping for sweater weather on Christmas Day, I
hate to be the bearer or bad news, but it's shaping up to be one
of the warmest we've seen since our records began - perhaps in 
the Top 5 warmest Christmases on record, based on the latest 
forecast. No cold fronts or rain chances are on the horizon 
through late next week, with high temperatures in the 70s to low
80s each day next week and morning lows mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with no significant
aviation weather concerns. Northerly winds around 10-15 kts will
continue early this evening before diminishing by 03-05Z. While 
prevailing gusts are subsiding, occasional gusts to near 20-25 kts
remain possible for a few more hours while the boundary layer is 
decoupling. Wind speeds will continue to decrease through the 
overnight period, becoming light and at times variable as surface
high pressure settles into the region. By mid morning Friday, 
winds will shift back out of the south with speeds increasing to 
around 10-15 kts, and occasional gusts to 20 kts possible during 
the afternoon hours. Skies will remain clear throughout the period
with no visibility restrictions expected. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  62  50  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                38  63  48  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               34  57  44  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              31  62  46  77 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            34  60  47  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              39  62  49  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             35  61  48  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           38  64  50  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              35  65  47  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       33  67  46  83 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...12