911 
FXUS64 KFWD 180655
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies will gradually clear today as the arrival of a cold front
  brings drier air with gusty north winds of 15-25 mph. 

- Marginally elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of
  Highway 281 today through Saturday due to above normal 
  temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds. 

- Near-record high temperatures are forecast across the area on
  Saturday, with abnormal warmth continuing through most of the 
  upcoming week, including the Christmas holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Patchy fog and drizzle will continue east of I-35 this morning as
a blanket of low stratus gradually erodes from west to east. 
Winds will veer westerly ahead of an approaching cold front set to
arrive after daybreak, and this boundary will quickly move 
through the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest winds will 
follow in its wake, with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts 
near 30 mph through most of the afternoon. These speeds will 
remain shy of Wind Advisory criteria, and no headlines are 
planned. Significantly drier air will arrive behind the front with
dewpoints falling into the 20s, and this will send RH values into
the teens across our western zones while afternoon temperatures 
climb into the 60s. The combination of low RH and gusty winds will
marginally elevate the fire weather threat, and a Grass Fire 
Danger Statement has been issued to highlight this potential. 
While the drier air behind the front will scour any remaining 
cloud cover, temperatures with this frontal passage are not 
drastically cooler owing to the tepid nature of the upstream cP 
airmass. The cooler night ahead with lows in the 30s will more so 
be due to favorable radiational cooling in the presence of very
low dewpoints and decreasing northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday) 
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Low-level flow will already return to southerly on Friday, and
temperatures will rebound to above normal amid breezy southerly
winds. Moisture return will lag behind the southerly return flow
though, and low humidity and elevated wind speeds will act to 
elevate the fire weather threat across western portions of the 
area again Friday afternoon. Highs will mostly be in the 60s, with
a few readings in the 70s west of I-35. Winds will veer westerly 
on Saturday ahead of the next upper trough and deepening TX 
Panhandle surface low, and the resultant compressional warming 
will send temperatures to near-record values with highs in the 70s
and lower 80s. While moisture will have begun returning to 
portions of the area in the second day of southerly flow, it will 
remain absent from our northwestern zones where fire weather 
conditions are likely to become elevated again. 

On Saturday evening, A Northern Plains trough will swing through 
the Dakotas and Great Lakes region while its attendant frontal 
zone gets pulled through portions of North Texas before stalling 
through Central and East Texas on Sunday. Moisture content ahead 
of this boundary is unlikely to be sufficient for measurable 
precipitation to occur, although an increase in cloud cover and 
perhaps some spotty light rain/drizzle are possible on Sunday. 
This will also act to knock high temperatures down to the 60s and 
lower 70s, but they'll still remain several degrees above normal 
for mid December. 

An anomalously strong upper ridge axis with heights three sigma
above average will build across the Southern and Central Plains 
heading into early next week, setting the stage for abnormally 
warm and dry weather through the rest of the extended forecast. 
Christmas could be in the top 10 or even top 5 warmest on record 
with highs likely in the 70s or lower 80s through most of next 
week. Rain chances will be below mentionable levels through the 
remainder of the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A southwestward veering of low-level flow ahead of a cold front is
beginning to result in cig/vis improvement at the TAF sites as of
06z with slightly drier air beginning to erode the western edge 
of the low stratus deck. Cigs should mostly be MVFR through the 
rest of the early morning period as a result, with only brief 
dips to IFR possible at the eastern airports through daybreak. 
Scattering to VFR is forecast between 12-14z as winds become 
westerly, with the frontal passage's northwest wind shift expected
around 16z. Post-frontal wind speeds will be around 15 kts with 
gusts to 25-30 kts through most of the afternoon. Speeds will 
decrease to 10 ks or less after 00z this evening where they will 
remain through Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  58  66  38 /   0  20   0   0 
Waco                62  59  69  38 /  20  20   0   0 
Paris               58  56  64  34 /  20  30  10   0 
Denton              63  56  65  31 /   0  10   0   0 
McKinney            62  59  67  34 /  10  20   0   0 
Dallas              63  60  66  39 /   0  20   0   0 
Terrell             61  58  67  34 /  20  20  10   0 
Corsicana           63  61  69  38 /  20  20   0   0 
Temple              63  59  70  36 /  10  10   0   0 
Mineral Wells       67  51  66  33 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley