110 
FXUS65 KPSR 112321
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
421 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will be seen across the region
  through at least the weekend with some locations flirting with 
  record highs.

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail through at least next 
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to be the dominate weather regime over
the southwestern CONUS through the end of the week and into the
weekend. With atmospheric heights near or above the 90th
percentile, a reflection of the amount of warm air throughout the
atmospheric column, much warmer-than-normal temperatures will be 
common across the forecast area. Outside of a few degrees 
variation at a given point day-by-day, temperatures through Sunday
will hold mostly steady in the upper 70s to lower 80s for desert 
locales. This will be a good 10-15 degrees above normal for the 
middle of December and a number of daily record highs may be tied 
with or exceeded in the coming days. As of now, the most likely 
time and place to see a new daily record high set is Phoenix on 
Sunday where the current forecasted high is 82 degrees while the 
record is 78 set in 2010. Some high clouds moving over the region 
late in the weekend may present a limiting factor toward reaching 
that 82 degree mark, but given the strength of the ridge, at least
tying the record seems almost guaranteed as probabilities for 
this result are currently at 90%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Very little will change as far as the weather pattern for next
week with any weather systems staying across the northern tier
states. Models do show a very weak shortwave trough moving either
through the ridge or overtopping the ridge early next week, but 
H5 are shown to only drop briefly to between 580-582dm. This 
little feature may cause daytime highs to dip more into the mid 
70s by next Tuesday or Wednesday, but guidance favors a rebuilding
of the ridge again by late next week. This should at least 
maintain highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s late next week 
with some potential for reaching 80 degrees again by next weekend.
Other than some occasional higher level clouds, the air mass will
stay dry across the region through all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z. 

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and 
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: 

No aviation weather concerns will exist through Friday evening. 
Light winds (generally AOB 7 kts) will follow a familiar diurnal
pattern, with extended periods of variability to nearly calm 
conditions. Clear skies will be followed by FEW-SCT cirrus decks
moving in Friday afternoon. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region into next week
with temperatures running 8-13 degrees above normal. Winds are
expected to remain light every day and follow diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay above critical levels 
with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-30%, followed by 
good overnight recoveries to around 50-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

	   Phoenix
	   -------
12/11  81 (1977)
12/12  79 (2010)
12/13  82 (2010)
12/14  78 (2010)
12/15  79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman 
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict