712 
FXUS64 KBMX 082337
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
537 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025

 - Lows tonight will fall below freezing for nearly all of 
   Central Alabama.

 - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below
   average, with a period of below freezing nights possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Tuesday) 
Issued at 536 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025

Main forecast challenge will be cloudcover overnight and its
effect on temperatures as winds go calm. In general, looking at 
where the breaks are on satellite imagery suggests clouds hanging
on generally along and west of I-65 with more clearing east of 
I-65. Have bumped up low temperatures especially across the 
southwest counties, while the coolest readings should be in the 
northeast. May need to bump these up further in some areas. In 
areas that do clear, there will be a low chance for patchy fog.

32/JDavis

Previous discussion:
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025

Good news, bad news. The bad news is, today is going to be another 
cloudy, dreary day given the cool temperatures and low clouds. 
Thankfully, these clouds will finally mix out by tomorrow morning as 
dry air begins to filter into the region behind the front. This 
means sunny skies will finally return to the region, with clear 
skies expected through the middle of the workweek. With that being 
said, clouds and rain chances will return by Thursday ahead of the 
next trough into the weekend.

If you remember in my discussion yesterday, I mentioned that the 
cold weather this weekend will heavily depend on how far south the 
trough ends up dropping. Even in the last 24 hours, long-range 
guidance has already backed off on the deep, secondary low that 
would have pushed this trough well into the region. Now, this is 
somewhat expected given that we're still six days out, and this is 
quite literally an ebb and flow forecast given the nature of low 
pressures. It's entirely possible this happens 12 more times the 
next six days. Super cold one day, more "mild" the next. As such, 
the temperatures this weekend will certainly be something to keep an 
eye on, it's just a matter of "how low can we go?"

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025

Satellite imagery still indicates an expansive area of low stratus
across the area, but with some breaks. The most notable break is
across East Alabama and Georgia due to downsloping off the
Appalachians, with smaller breaks further to the west.
Probabilities from the HREF favor keeping the low clouds around at
BHM/EET/TCL through the night, with bases lowering to IFR. There
is a lower probability alternative scenario, however, where
ceiling scatter out overnight. If this happens then there would 
be at least a low chance for patchy fog. 

Have some TEMPO groups for MVFR at MGM/AUO tomorrow morning, with
low to medium chances for the cloud deck to push southward 
towards MGM, as well as for another low cloud deck across Georgia
to push westward towards AUO. VFR conditions should return by 
late morning Tuesday as low-level flow becomes southwesterly. 

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will continue to run above 40% for most of the next 
week, with no widespread rainfall chances in the forecast. Even with 
no rainfall anticipated, fire weather concerns will remain little to 
non for most of this week given wet fuels. However, by this weekend, 
fuels may dry back out, and MinRH values may drop back into the 30% 
range.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     26  51  32  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    28  53  34  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  29  51  36  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  31  53  34  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Calera      28  54  34  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      31  52  34  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  31  53  32  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Troy        31  53  31  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION...32/JDavis