279 
FXUS61 KBOX 081926
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
226 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold overnight with an arctic airmass in place, followed by a 
cold and dry Tuesday. Have improving temperatures for the middle 
part of the week, but this comes with unsettled conditions beginning 
with Tuesday night. Unsettled with a few systems moving through the 
region, bringing periodic chances for rain and or snow showers into 
Saturday. Trending cooler later in the week, then below normal 
temperatures returning by the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages: 

* Turning very cold overnight, with areas dropping below zero in the 
  far north/northwest areas of Massachusetts. 

No significant weather concerns for the rest of today and tonight as 
an area of high-pressure settles overhead; which originated near the 
Arctic Circle. Periodic wind gusts this afternoon will diminish with 
a light to calm wind overnight. Clear sky in conjunction with light 
winds leads to radiational cooling. Temperatures at 500mb are -32C 
to -30C, which is anomolously cold; 10th percentile of climatology 
for today's date per Chatham sounding climatology. Expecting frigid 
temperatures, coldest across northern and western Massachusetts 
where snow depth ranges between 4 and 8 inches, here the overnight 
temperatures lower between low single digits to a few degrees below 
zero. Elsewhere, temperatures are in the single digits and teens 
near the coast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages: 

* Dry conditions through the daylight hours of Tuesday, then a quick 
  hitting system brings snow/rain showers overnight to the region. 

* Minor snow accumulations are possible, but not expected to be 
  widespread. 

Quiet and dry weather throughout the daylight hours Tuesday, with 
the most active period overnight into Wednesday morning. During the 
daytime an area of high-pressure moves east of New England, clear 
skies gives way to increasing cloud cover during the afternoon as 
WAA bring elevated PWATs into the region. Overall, chilly day as 
925mb temperatures are -8C to -6C and with a mixed boundary layer, 
afternoon high temperatures are once again in the 20s to mid-30s at 
the coast. 

Tuesday night, mid-level warm front and 850mb frontogenesis, between 
00z-06z, provides a brief hit of snow showers. The layer doesn't 
appear super saturated, thus not anticipating significant snowfall. 
High-res models picked up on this, indicating brief round of snow 
showers and coastal rain showers, from 7pm and 1am. Antecedent 
temperatures may allow for minor accumulations on paved surfaces of 
a few tenths of an inch. But, the higher end amounts of up to an 
inch remains possible, though not expected to be widespread. 

Any wet and untreated surfaces could become slick as the overnight 
temperatures are below freezing between the  upper teens through the 
20s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages: 

* Periodic chances for precipitation through Sunday.  

* Uncertainty in pattern details (timing, amounts, precip type), 
  especially Wednesday onward.

Rather good overall agreement with the synoptic pattern amongst the 
latest guidance suite members. Timing and amplitude differences 
continue to grow into this weekend. The overall pattern suggests a 
deepening mid level trough over the eastern USA for the second half 
of this upcoming week. The largest detail differences involve the 
evolution of a mid level cutoff somewhere between Hudson Bay and 
Quebec. Our proximity to this particular feature will play a role in 
how much lift can be used to generate cold advection showers across 
our region. The guidance also suggesting a prominent mid level storm 
track to our south late this week into early next week. Some 
guidance suggested the possibility of a fast-moving low pressure 
zipping by this weekend, which would enhance precipitation chances. 
Still have some doubts how close this low pressure can actually get 
to our region.

Have the greatest confidence for snow across the higher terrain of 
southern New England Wednesday, with a snow-to-rain transition at 
the lower elevations. Once this low pressure to our north and west 
passes by, the mode of precipitation is expected to transition to 
more of a cold advection showery pattern Thursday into Saturday. 
While the possibility of a passing shower cannot be completely 
dismissed, there should be many dry hours during this time, 
especially Thursday and Friday. Will need more time to figure out 
the precise track of a possible low pressure Saturday into Sunday. 
Should it pass close enough to our region, we would see a greater 
risk for a more widespread light snow at night, and more light rain 
mixing in during the daytime. Not looking like a blockbuster storm 
at this point, should it even materialize at all. A high pressure 
should take over once more early next week. 

Temperatures are anticipated to be below normal late this week into 
early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update: 

Today through Tuesday... High Confidence. 

Dry and VFR, occasionally lower end VFR ceilings across terminals in 
eastern Massachusetts through sunset. Gusty NW to NNW winds, gusting 
between 20-25 knots, then diminishing after 21z. Light northerly wind 
tonight becoming calm. Wind direction on Tuesday starts out of the 
west less than 5 knots, becoming south-southwest 8-12 knots after 
15z.

Tuesday Night... Moderate Confidence. 

VFR, lowering to MVFR/IFR, isolated to scattered snow and/or rain 
showers possible after 00z through 06z, with minor accumulation on 
runways less than an inch. Wind from the southwest are gusting up to 
15 knots over land and 25-30 knots over the coastal terminals. 

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. 

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... 

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tuesday Night... High confidence.

As high pressure builds in from the west, gusts diminish, falling 
below advisory criteria this afternoon. Residual sea state with seas 
4 to 6 feet remain through the first half of the overnight. Shifting 
wind direction Tuesday, becoming southwest with gusts 15-20 knots by 
late morning, 30+ knots Tuesday night, as a fast moving system 
brings near Gale Force conditions into Wednesday. Seas are building 
Tuesday night, 5-8 feet across southern waters, and 4-6 feet for the 
eastern waters. 

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
snow. 

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight
chance of snow. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Dooley