358 
FXUS65 KPSR 050455
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
955 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through next week 
with temperature warming from near normal to above normal levels. 

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas 
including southern Gila County tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We saw a cool start to the day as the area saw some of the coldest 
temperatures this season. Morning lows across the higher terrain 
registered in the low 30s while lower desert locales ranged anywhere 
from the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. This is thanks to the 
cooler, drier air that has been brought in with the passage of 
yesterday's trough, which is seen quickly exiting to the east 
today. While the shortwave trough has now exited well to the east 
of the region, the Southwest remains under the influence of 
longwave troughing that will help to keep cooler temperatures in 
place. 

Temperatures for the end of the workweek will remain near to 
slightly below normal as lower desert highs top out in the mid to
upper 60s today and tomorrow and upper 50s to low 60s across the 
higher terrain. Chilly morning temperatures will continue Friday 
morning as lows once again dip near to below freezing across 
portions of southern Gila County. Given this, a Freeze Warning is 
once again in effect for these areas Friday morning. Across the 
lower deserts, morning lows will range between the upper 30s to 
low 40s, while a few sheltered locations may dip into the lower 
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/...
This weekend the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will 
move eastward, but eventually stall just off the west coast. This 
high pressure system will hangout just off the coast and strengthen 
through the middle of next week. While the ridge won't be centered 
over the Desert Southwest, we will be under the influence of the 
eastern part of the high pressure. This will result in warming 
temperatures and continued dry and tranquil weather conditions, 
through at least the middle of next week. 

H5 heights over the Desert Southwest look to rise into a 576-581 dm 
range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm sometime around the 
middle of next week. This will result in temperatures going above 
normal during the weekend and rising to around 8-10 degrees above 
normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures this 
weekend will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower 
deserts and range from the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain. 
High temperatures will then continue to warm through the first half 
of next week rising to the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts 
and will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain by 
the middle of next week. Morning low temperatures will also be 3-6 
degrees above normal by the middle of next week (lower deserts: 
upper 40s to low 50s, higher terrain: upper 30s to mid 40s).  

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0450Z. 

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and 
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: 

No aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period. 
The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit light diurnal 
tendencies along with extended periods of light variability to 
calm conditions. A band of high clouds will move through later
tonight through early Friday morning before clear skies prevail
the rest of the day. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region through 
next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today 
and tomorrow, warming above normal this weekend, and then going 8-10 
degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds will be light 
and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Humidities over 
the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs mostly ranging between 
20-35% much of the time, with good to very good overnight recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ556-560-562.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Berislavich 
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich