290 
FXUS65 KPSR 041710
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1010 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through next week 
with temperature warming from near normal to above normal levels. 

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas 
including southern Gila County tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early morning upper level water vapor satellite imagery show a 
positively tilted long wave trough stretching from Western CONUS 
into the Plains. The base of the trough is currently situated off 
the west coast of central Baja. There is also a shortwave trough 
that move through our region yesterday, its base is currently 
straddling the AZ-NM boarder. There is also a high pressure system 
situated over the eastern Pacific Ocean. With the shortwave trough 
east of our area, dry and tranquil weather conditions return to the 
region today and continue into the weekend. This shortwave helped to 
bring cooler air into the region. Additionally the aforementioned 
broader trough will remain over the Desert Southwest into the 
weekend before exiting to the east, which will help to keep 
temperatures near to slightly below normal through at least the end 
of the workweek. 

With the cooler air in place, some higher terrain areas have already 
seeing temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s this morning, with a 
few hours of cooling left. A Freeze Warning remains in place for 
part of southern Gila County, including the Tonto Basin, and 
Sunflower, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos areas, through 9 am MST. 
Rural lower desert areas have temperatures ranging from the upper 
30s to mid 40s with more rural lower desert areas seeing 
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s so far this morning. With 
the long wave troughing still overhead tomorrow, similar morning 
lows are forecasted for tomorrow. Due to this another Freeze Warning 
has been issued for the Tonto Basin, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos 
areas from 2-9am MST. Afternoon high temperatures today and tomorrow 
will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees across the lower 
deserts and range from the mid 50s to low 60s across the higher 
terrain areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/...
This weekend the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will 
move eastward, but eventually stall just off the west coast. This 
high pressure system will hangout just off the coast and strengthen 
through the middle of next week. While the ridge won't be centered 
over the Desert Southwest, we will be under the influence of the 
eastern part of the high pressure. This will result in warming 
temperatures and continued dry and tranquil weather conditions, 
through at least the middle of next week. 

H5 heights over the Desert Southwest look to rise into a 576-581 dm 
range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm sometime around the 
middle of next week. This will result in temperatures going above 
normal during the weekend and rising to around 8-10 degrees above 
normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures this 
weekend will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower 
deserts and range from the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain. 
High temperatures will then continue to warm through the first half 
of next week rising to the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts 
and will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain by 
the middle of next week. Morning low temperatures will also be 3-6 
degrees above normal by the middle of next week (lower deserts: 
upper 40s to low 50s, higher terrain: upper 30s to mid 40s).  

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z. 

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and 
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: 

No major weather issues will exist through Friday afternoon under 
periods of high cirrus decks. Confidence is very good that winds 
around the Phoenix metro will only briefly switch to a westerly 
component closer to sunset, then revert back to an easterly 
direction mid/late evening. Across SE California, a light W/NW 
trajectory will be favored. Extended periods of nearly calm 
conditions will be common across the entire region. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region through 
next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today 
and tomorrow, warming above normal this weekend, and then going 8-10 
degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds will be light 
and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Humidities over 
the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs mostly ranging between 
20-35% much of the time, with good to very good overnight recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ556-560-562.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich 
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich