312 
FXUS63 KGLD 040902
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing fog, perhaps localized dense freezing fog, is
  forecast along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line 
  this morning. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may be slick 
  from the fog, and any other precipitation that froze 
  overnight.
 
- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- Very low chances for snow Saturday across northern portions of
  the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A period of subtle moisture advection coupled with an increase in 
700mb dry air led to periods of freezing drizzle across the area 
during the early morning hours. We have just enough dry air 
advection in the 850-800mb layer that a subtle warm nose has formed 
leading to the freezing precipitation. 03Z RAP suggests any low
level omega should end around 08Z thusly ending any 
precipitation potential. 285 and 290K isentropic analysis also 
suggests subsidence to be on the increase as well during this 
time. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also forecast primarily 
across western portions of the area, with the potential for 
localized dense fog as well. Any dense fog looks to be kept 
along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Any fog 
potential looks to end around 12-14Z as winds become more 
southwesterly as a surface trough moves across the area. 
Stratus however is forecast to linger through the late afternoon
hours making it a slow warm up for most. 

As the trough continues to move through the area and clouds 
clear breezy winds are forecast to ensue sustained around 15-20
mph is forecast with gusts of 25-30 mph. Winds are forecast to 
be in the "furnace" wind direction which climatologically 
supports temperatures in the upper forecast echelon so have 
nudged temperatures up some. I wasn't as aggressive as I 
normally would be given the new snowfall potentially mitigating
how warm we can get. Sunny skies are then forecast to ensue for 
the afternoon before some scattered to broken mid level clouds 
move in again for the evening and overnight hours.

Friday, surface troughing continues across the area. An increase 
in in 700-500mb moisture occurs as well. RAP cross sections show
modest omega around 10-12 microbars in this layer as well but 
with dry air in the low levels virga is most likely to occur 
although some sprinkles or flurries may mix in. The NAM however 
has a deeper and moist profile but the forcing is I did nudge 
temperatures down a few degrees as well as most GEFS ensemble 
members keeps colder 850mb temperatures further west than 
deterministic guidance does. High temperatures for the day 
remain forecast in the low to mid 50s across the area. Breezy 
winds may also develop as well with the trough gusting to 25 
mph. 

Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to develop as yet 
another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and a 
surface low developing across northwestern portions of the forecast 
area. 850mb winds are forecast to intensify as the low deepens with 
sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The NAM 
has the low a little further north which would increase the 
magnitude of the winds whereas the GFS has is more over the area
and broad which would lessen the winds some. Current forecast 
is tailored more towards the ECMWF which is a combo of the two 
with a bit of a more northern track but a broad low. Will also 
need to watch for some spotty rain or snow showers as well as 
some sporadic 700mb frontogenesis through the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

The long-term will be plagued with northwesterly flow allowing 
multiple shortwave troughs to move through the region. The first 
wave could move through around 18Z Monday to 6Z Tuesday and a second 
one within 24 hours. These shortwaves look to be fairly dry, so 
precipitation is not likely. However, if southerly 850 mb advection 
taps into more moist air, this could quickly change and will need to 
be monitored.

Our next big trough is looking to move into the area some time 
between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday noon. There is a better 
signal that precipitation will occur with this system as low-level 
moisture will have increased. Currently, PoPs are focused on the 
northwestern CWA, reaching about 20, while the northwestern 3/4 of 
the CWA is sitting around 10 PoPs. Depending on if the precipitation 
occurs overnight or during the day will decide if snow or rain will 
be the dominate P-type.

Sunday's high temperatures are a bit uncertain as the exiting trough 
will heavily influence them. NBM currently shows the eastern edges 
of the CWA remaining in the low to mid 30s while the western half of 
the CWA warms into the mid to upper 40s. If the trough exits faster, 
temperatures will be in the 40s across the area, but if it's slower 
or takes a more westerly path, cooler temperatures will spread 
westward. Beyond Sunday, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 
50s while lows will generally cool into the 20s.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Light snow continues across the GLD terminal and is forecast to
continue through around 09Z; also can't rule out periods of 
freezing drizzle so remain aware for some light icing. Also 
watching for some fog potential for GLD as well but the threat 
should lessen around 09-10Z as winds turn more southwesterly. 
There is a 10% chance of visibility dropping below 1/2SM but if 
it does remain aware for freezing fog. MCK is forecast to remain
in stratus dropping to IFR through the early morning hours 
before improving Thursday morning. Did have a report earlier of 
some light freezing drizzle west of MCK but current thinking is 
that this threat has ended as we lose forcing. Breezy winds 
gusting 20-25 knots are forecast through the day Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg