National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLZK
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLZK
Product Timestamp: 2025-12-04 05:20 UTC
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859 FXUS64 KLZK 040520 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1120 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - A brief warmup today before a cold front moves through by tonight. - Cooler temperatures expected on Thursday with precip most likely across southern Arkansas through Thursday night. - There is a low chance for a brief period of winter weather Thursday. - Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures expected for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Given the past 24-36 hours of temp and ceiling trends, expect cooler than NBM temp fcst, w/ high temps struggling to reach or exceed 40F over much of AR today, w/ the exception being where clouds may clear acrs NWrn AR. Have kept this trend going forward into Thurs, with temps lkly once again staying several degrees below blended base guidance. In addition to cooler than fcst temps, the precipitation fcst is still largely uncertain thru the next 24 hrs, as 12Z short term guidance has trended towards higher PoPs along and behind the apprchg frnt. This raises the question of impacts of winter precip, given incrsg potential and an earlier onset time. Both HRRR/RAP fcst soundings suggest favorable thermal profiles, alongside higher PoPs, w/ portions of Cntrl AR (mainly along and north of I40), and the Nrn third of AR in this area of uncertainty. Wl continue to monitor short term guidance thru the aftn to evng for trend consistency, w/ confidence of higher impact winter precip still low attm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Early morning satellite imagery shows an extensive area of stratus across much of the SE US, including much of eastern Arkansas. This will have an impact on overnight lows in these areas, while clear sky conditions elsewhere will allow temperatures to be quite cool. Additionally, some FG development may be possible across portions of western and northern Arkansas. With temperatures below freezing in these areas, any fog would be freezing fog. Will monitor trends through daybreak in case a dense fog advisory is necessary. By this afternoon, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer as sfc ridging shifts east of the area and southerly winds are briefly noted. This will be short lived as a cold front is expected to move through from later this evening through tonight which will usher in much cooler temperatures for Thursday. In the mid-level flow aloft a weak H500 disturbance will move from the SW US Wednesday evening to just east of Arkansas early Tuesday morning. A corresponding sfc low will move east along the Gulf coast with precip spreading north into Arkansas. Precip is most likely across southern AR Thursday into Thursday night. There remains a limited threat for a brief period of freezing rain or light sleet along the northern edge of the precip. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the end of the period with slightly warmer temperatures into early next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 While some VFR conditions are noted across the area as of 05z, widespread IFR and lower conditions are expected through the period due to low cigs and reduced vsby at times. A cold front will move through and precip will move across much of the state through 04/00z. Some occasional SN or PL will be noted at times as well while RA will be common across southern AR. Winds will eventually become NE across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 38 29 36 25 / 0 0 20 10 Camden AR 44 36 41 32 / 0 60 80 20 Harrison AR 47 28 34 26 / 0 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 41 33 39 29 / 0 10 40 10 Little Rock AR 40 34 38 29 / 0 10 40 10 Monticello AR 42 37 40 34 / 0 60 90 40 Mount Ida AR 42 33 39 29 / 0 10 30 10 Mountain Home AR 45 28 36 24 / 0 0 10 0 Newport AR 38 32 36 28 / 0 0 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 41 34 39 30 / 0 30 60 20 Russellville AR 43 33 40 29 / 0 0 20 10 Searcy AR 39 30 37 27 / 0 0 30 10 Stuttgart AR 40 34 37 31 / 0 20 60 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...67