185 
FXUS64 KBMX 011747
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1147 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
   expected across central Alabama through Tuesday. Highest
   rainfall amounts are expected along the I-85 corridor.

 - Widespread freezing temperatures in the low to mid 20s will
   return Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A few upper 
   teens will likely be observed within colder valleys.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for soaking rains
   Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 202 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025

Today through Tuesday:

The cold front with modified arctic air to the north of it has
slowly moved southward near the I-20 corridor early this morning.
Temporary clearing of low clouds have occurred at TCL and BHM as
the dry air has moved just enough to the south while all other
locations south of I-20 remain socked in with low ceilings and
overcast skies. Cold Air Advection is currently ongoing across 
Central Tennessee and northern Alabama with northerly winds
gusting between 10 and 15 knots on some METARs. However, the 
coldest air still hasn't been able to make it southward just yet, 
with lower 30s observed across northern Alabama and below 
freezing temperatures a little farther to the north. As a result,
the hourly forecast for temperatures and dewpoints have been 
revised upward for locations north of I-20 through daybreak. For 
the rest of the CWA, temperatures will continue to fall a few 
degrees and lows should range from the upper 30s just south of 
I-20 to the upper 40s in Troy and Eufaula.

The clearing across the northern half of the forecast area will 
be very short-lived as the next shortwave trough ejects eastward 
from the Four Corners states today, combined with a 500mb impulse 
originating from Mexico. Strong isentropic upglide will begin as 
early as this afternoon with a CAD wedge working in from Georgia 
and easterly to southeasterly flow at the surface. A 50 to 65 knot
southwesterly jet at 500mb with a tropical plume of moisture 
headed north from the Gulf between 850 and 700mb will quickly 
develop widespread rains by this evening, spreading across much of
the Deep South. Highs today will remain on the cooler side due to
overcast conditions remaining in place, followed by rain 
developing by this afternoon. Mid 40s can be expected in Hamilton,
while Eufaula will have a good chance of reaching the lower 60s 
with a warmer southeasterly surface flow.

A soaking rainfall will develop overnight tonight as overrunning 
moisture continues to move northward and a surface low moves from
just south of Pensacola to near Dothan by early Tuesday morning.
1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts on average should remain along and 
southeast of the I-59 corridor with heaviest rains concentrated
along the I-85 corridor just north of the track of the surface 
low. A few rumbles of thunder certainly can't be ruled out in 
these areas with localized heavier rainfall amounts. We'll keep an
eye out for localized flooding, especially within poor drainage 
areas. Recent falling leaves will also help to clog storm drains 
and ditches, likely leading to additional ponding of water on 
roadways. A non-diurnal temperature curve has been forecast across
the CWA overnight as temperatures remain in the 50s closest to 
the surface low to the south, while temperatures drop behind the 
next cold front moving into western Alabama before daybreak 
Tuesday morning. All rainfall will be well to our east by Tuesday 
afternoon with another round of modified arctic air filtering into
the region. Despite clearing skies, temperatures are advertised 
to struggle to reach the 40 degree mark in Marion and Winston 
Counties, with low to mid 50s south of I-85. Blustery northwest 
winds between 10 and 20mph will cause wind chills to perhaps stay
in the upper 20s to lower 30s along and north of I-20.

Tuesday Night through the Upcoming Weekend:

Thankfully winds will diminish after sunset Tuesday as surface
high pressure builds in across the Tennessee River Valley.
Unfortunately that will also provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions under clear skies and very dry air at the surface. A
widespread freeze will occur as a result, with widespread low to
mid 20s forecast for much of the area by sunrise Wednesday. We 
will likely see some upper teens in the colder valleys across the 
northeastern counties along the I-59 corridor northeast of 
Birmingham. Following a dry and mostly sunny day on Wednesday with
chilly temperatures in the 50s, the next storm system is expected
to arrive by Thursday. Guidance is presenting a very similar 
upper level pattern to what is currently ongoing now across the 
Deep South, with a more suppressed shortwave due to a stronger 592
decameter ridge building over Cuba. The result would be another 
round of widespread rains Thursday night through Friday night as 
another surface low moves from the Mississippi and Alabama coast 
to the Florida Panhandle by Friday afternoon. PoPs have been 
increased to categorical during that time frame as confidence in 
this solution continues to rise. Guidance solutions begin to 
diverge in terms of the 500mb pattern by the upcoming weekend and 
have kept a mainly persistence forecast in place through Sunday 
due to the lower forecast confidence.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025

A band of MVFR cigs is currently located across MGM and AUO, with
a low to medium chance that it will move northward to the northern
terminals this afternoon. Light rain will also develop near the
northern terminals this afternoon but shouldn't have a significant
impact on visibilities. By this evening, widespread steady light 
to moderate rain will overspread the area, along with IFR to LIFR 
cigs. Rain ends from west to east tomorrow morning, but expect IFR
cigs to linger through at least midday. Behind a cold front, 
winds tomorrow will become northwesterly at 10 to 12 kts.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of soaking rainfall is expected to move across 
Central Alabama this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. 1 to
2 inches of rainfall on average is anticipated along and
south/east of the I-59 corridor. Dry weather returns late Tuesday
through the mid-week period with MinRHs ranging from the mid 30s
to upper 40s once again by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  42  45  21 /  40 100  30   0 
Anniston    53  45  47  24 /  40 100  40   0 
Birmingham  52  41  44  25 /  40 100  30   0 
Tuscaloosa  52  41  43  25 /  50 100  20   0 
Calera      53  43  46  25 /  40 100  30   0 
Auburn      55  50  53  29 /  20 100  50   0 
Montgomery  58  50  54  28 /  30 100  40   0 
Troy        59  53  55  29 /  30 100  40   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...32/JDavis