374 
FXUS64 KMOB 301751
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft 
   over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
   expected for Monday night and Tuesday.&&

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

11.30Z upper air maps show a nearly flat flow in the geo-potential 
height field at high levels with a stream of clouds ejecting 
eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. In the lower levels and at 
the surface, a front was aligned from the OH River Valley, southwest 
to across central LA to southern TX. A pre-frontal trof of low 
pressure was moving slowly eastward over the western zones where we 
see an area of showers. Instability looks to remain limited, with
just showers expected as the frontal approaches/makes passage.  
The front makes passage into the northern Gulf tonight but the 
flow aloft generally stays southwesterly where the passage of a 
series of mid-level impulses support enough lift to maintain small
PoPs, generally 20% or less. Upstream, a positively tilted upper 
trof pivots eastward across the Plains Monday with larger scale 
lift increasing and overspreading the Lower MS River Valley. At 
the surface, it's more complex with northern Gulf front stalling 
out Monday where a wave of frontal low pressure begins to form and
then skirts east northeast over the marine area Monday night. 
This feature lifts away Tuesday. At the present time, the cool 
sector north of the boundary looks to create a more stable 
environment over the land zones Monday and Monday night where the 
predominant weather mode is more supportive of likely to 
categorical showers with a lower end chance of embedded thunder. 
Meanwhile, the Gulf waters to perhaps right along the coast 
perhaps more across coastal sections of the Northwest FL 
Panhandle could see storms more rooted at the surface east and 
southeast of the eventual low track where a bit more instability 
over-rides a zone of 0-3KM helicity which could support a few 
rotating updrafts. At present time considering the low confidence,
the risk for severe storms is too low for anything higher than a 
general storm outlook. Will continue to monitor trends. Rain 
chances taper to dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday. Dry 
conditions continue Wednesday. 

Chances of showers and storms return the latter end of the week as 
next storm system moves east across the southern Plains. Another 
frontal wave of low pressure also expected to move east northeast 
out of the western Gulf Friday and across the central Gulf coast 
Friday night into Saturday bringing a return to likely to perhaps 
categorical rain chances to the area. 

Daytime highs sink to well below normal Tuesday through Thursday 
before moderating. Overnight lows trend colder through the middle of 
the week. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday morning with lows 
plummeting into the mid to upper 20's interior and some 10 to 15 
degrees below December 3rd normal. 35 to 40 right along the coast.
Lows also gradually moderate the latter half of the week, but
still cool. 

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
becoming high Monday night into Tuesday. Rip current risk tapers 
to low Wednesday and Thursday. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon before ceilings fall
to MVFR to IFR this evening. Expect a wind shift this evening from
easterly and southeasterly to more northeasterly as a cold front
slides across the region. Winds will increase on the backside of 
the front to near 10 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots at times 
this evening. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold front settles just south of the coastal waters late tonight. 
A wave of frontal low pressure moves over area waters late Monday. 
Onshore flow increases ahead of the low switching to offshore in the 
wake of the low Tuesday morning. Winds and gusts may increase to 
border-line small craft advisory criteria Monday night into Tuesday. 
Seas building. Winds and seas subside Wednesday. The next storm 
system approaching from the west brings an increase in onshore winds 
and a build seas by the close of the week. /10 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  50  66  49 /  40  20  50  90 
Pensacola   71  56  69  55 /  30  20  50  90 
Destin      71  56  70  58 /  30  30  50  90 
Evergreen   68  45  66  47 /  40  30  50  90 
Waynesboro  57  41  57  40 /  70  30  60  90 
Camden      59  43  60  41 /  60  20  50  90 
Crestview   72  51  68  53 /  30  30  40  90 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$