332 
FXUS62 KMLB 301120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through the rest
  of the weekend, but isolated sprinkles and showers due to 
  persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out, mainly south of the
  Cape.

- Rain chances increase into Tuesday, with a few storms possible,
  as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry 
  conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Today-Tonight... High pressure stretching across central Florida 
early this morning is forecast to gradually retreat northeastward 
across the western Atlantic. Onshore winds continue, increasing to 
around 10 mph by the afternoon. RAP sounding analysis indicates a 
column of low level moisture with a low level RH around 75-80%. 
This should be enough to support shallow, onshore-moving showers, 
particularly from Cape Canaveral southward. Outside of a 20% PoP 
across southern Brevard and the Treasure Coast counties, most 
areas should remain dry. More sunshine is expected today with 
afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Monday-Tuesday Night... A cold front slides offshore the eastern 
U.S., extending across areas of north Florida and into the Gulf by 
Monday. A weak area of low pressure develops along the frontal 
boundary, lifting across portions of the southeast U.S. on Tuesday. 
This will pull a cold front more cleanly through central Florida 
late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. East-northeast winds on 
Monday veer overnight, becoming breezy out of the southwest on 
Tuesday. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are forecast 
Monday, with rain chances increasing on Tuesday ahead of the next 
frontal passage. The highest coverage looks to be along, north and 
west of a line from Lake Kissimmee to New Smyrna Beach (50-60%) with 
lower rain chances further south and east (30-40%). Surface CAPE is 
forecast to remain limited on Tuesday with global model soundings 
suggesting the potential for multilayer cloudiness. However, 
southwest shear profiles increasing to around 35-40 kts near 700 
mb will contribute to a conditional storm environment. Gusty 
showers and isolated gusty storms look to be the primary threat. 
Temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday continue to 
trend above normal on Tuesday, reaching the low to mid 80s in 
southwest flow. Low temperatures spread the low 60s across the 
interior and mid 60s along the coast Monday morning, more widely 
ranging the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday morning.

Wednesday-Saturday... High pressure builds across the region 
Wednesday behind the front. The next area of low pressure attempts 
to loosely organize offshore Texas on Thursday, gradually traveling 
east-northeast and emerging into the western Atlantic late Friday or 
on Saturday. An attached frontal boundary sags near or across north 
Florida into the weekend with current guidance keeping it north of 
the local area through the forecast period. Dry conditions hold 
through Friday. Moisture increases in vicinity of the front over 
north Florida this weekend, allowing for scattered rain chances 
(30-40%) near, north, and west of I-4 on Saturday. Afternoon 
temperatures become cooler Wednesday, widely spreading the low 70s
across the north near Leesburg and Daytona Beach and reaching the
low 80s across the far south near Lake Okeechobee. Gradual 
warming is forecast each day, with highs ranging the upper 70s to 
mid 80s by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

East winds 15-20 kts diminish from north to south through late this 
morning as high pressure retreats over the western Atlantic. Poor 
boating continues across the Treasure Coast Gulf Stream waters into 
early this afternoon as seas up to 6 ft slowly subside. Outside of 
isolated to scattered onshore moving showers, favorable Atlantic 
boating is forecast Monday with seas 3-4 ft and east to northeast 
winds 10-15 kts. The next cold front approaches the local waters 
Tuesday, increasing and shifting winds out of the southwest at 15-20 
kts. In response, seas build 4-5 ft, increasing up to 6 feet across 
the far offshore Volusia waters. Scattered to numerous showers and 
isolated storms are forecast across the waters Tuesday ahead of the 
front. Winds and seas quickly subside Wednesday as high pressure 
builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions persist. ENE winds prevail at 5 to 10 knots. Light
showers will be possible from MLB southward, but only added VCSH 
in at SUA for the time being. Will monitor and amend as needed. 
Winds become lighter around 5 knots or less overnight. No VIS or 
CIG concerns through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  63  77  66 /   0  10  20  20 
MCO  80  64  81  67 /   0  10  20  10 
MLB  78  66  79  68 /  20  10  20  10 
VRB  79  66  80  68 /  20  20  20  10 
LEE  80  61  79  65 /   0  10  20  20 
SFB  80  63  79  65 /   0  10  20  10 
ORL  80  63  79  66 /   0  10  20  10 
FPR  80  65  80  67 /  20  20  20  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Tollefsen