160 
FXUS64 KOUN 300635
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

-Below normal temperatures persist into early this week, with a 
 chance for light wintry precipitation Monday.

-Temperatures moderate Tuesday, ahead of a cold front that will
 bring colder weather late Wednesday into Thursday.

-There is a chance for light wintry precipitation Thursday into
 Thursday night. 
 

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold air mass associated with a 1038 mb surface high is 
entrenched across much of the Plains in the wake of yesterday's 
strong cold front. 

Northerly winds will continue to decrease tonight as the surface 
pressure gradient relaxes with the departing mid-latitude cyclone.
Even so, continued cold air advection will allow for the cold 
night with lows in the teens and 20s deg F. Combined with the 
northerly winds, wind chills will be in the teens and single 
digits this morning.

Cloud cover will increase today ahead of the next shortwave 
trough. With increasing cloud cover and continued cold air 
advection, afternoon highs will be well below-normal in the mid 
30s to mid 40s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

By tonight, cloud cover will increase markedly as ascent 
increases ahead of a positively-tiled shortwave trough approaching
from the northwest. The positively-tiled shortwave trough will 
quickly track across northern Oklahoma into Kansas on Monday, 
which will keep much of the synoptic-scale ascent to our north.

Overall, there has been a downward trend on any winter weather 
impacts. Across northern Oklahoma, the track of the shortwave 
trough continues to be unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with 
the highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture appears to
be limited with the system. As a result, the probability of 1" of
snowfall has decreased and is now less than 10% near the 
Kansas/Oklahoma border. Therefore, only light snow is expected 
with minimal to no accumulations. 

Farther to the south across west central, central, and east 
central Oklahoma, warm air advection/isentropic ascent may result 
in a light wintry mix with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow 
all possible. The mixture of precipitation is due to a couple 
factors: 1) potential of saturation below the dendritic growth 
zone (i.e., supercooled water droplets) and 2) temperatures rising
above freezing. However, a dry planetary boundary layer will 
likely result in much of precipitation evaporating or sublimating
before reaching the surface. It'll likely be a scenario where 
there will be a lot of mid-level echoes on the radar--but most of 
it is virga. Given this, we only have a low (20%) chance of a 
wintry mix. The most likely (relative) area to receive measurable 
precipitation is southeast Oklahoma, where temperatures will 
quickly rise above freezing. 

Dry conditions are expected Monday night with a warmer night 
expected with a return to southerly winds. 

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Temperatures will moderate by Tuesday as mid-level heights rise
with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday
afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

The next cold front will move through during the day Wednesday 
as a mid/upper-level trough embedded in the polar jet stream 
amplifies across the Great Lakes region. Depending on the timing
of the front's passage, some locations may experience falling 
temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This cold front will return us 
to below-normal temperatures Thursday with highs likely in the 
30s and 40s deg F.

In addition, there is the potential a wave in the subtropical jet
stream may provide enough synoptic-scale ascent in the front's
wake for a chance for precipitation Thursday into Friday. 
Depending on temperature profiles, there is the potential for a 
wintry mix--especially across the north and west (where the air 
mass will likely be colder). However, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty on the exact track of the wave and the northwest
extent of any precipitation. Therefore, the highest chance of 
precipitation is across southeast/south central Oklahoma, where 
temperatures are expected to be above freezing.

Similar to the previous cold air mass, temperatures are expected 
to quickly moderate by Friday and Saturday with a return to 
southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds in the area later tonight into
Sunday. Winds will continue to slowly decrease from N to S across
the area as sfc builds into the region. Winds are expected to
shift towards the E and maybe SE Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  24  37  29 /  30   0   0  10 
Hobart OK         57  22  39  27 /   0   0  10   0 
Wichita Falls TX  68  27  42  33 /  20   0   0  10 
Gage OK           47  16  35  22 /   0   0  10  10 
Ponca City OK     54  22  37  26 /  30   0   0  10 
Durant OK         57  28  44  32 /  70   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25