141 
FXUS63 KMPX 300459
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1059 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing snowstorm will slowly wind down through the evening. 
  No major deviations from the forecast occurring with this one.

- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week
  of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of the
  season looking likely Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a classic mid-latitude 
cyclone over the central CONUS. Here in MN and WI, we're within the 
well defined baroclinic leaf of this system. We have broad ascent 
across the area, but the cold cloud tops and convective look to the 
clouds has been down in Iowa, where we've seen some intense 
mesoscale bands of snow. This broad shield of light to moderate snow 
for up here was well forecast. From what reports we've gotten so far 
(4.5" through 2pm at Albert Lea is a good example), it's looking 
like we're heading toward a ceiling of 8-9 inches down along the I-
90 corridor. Up in the Twin Cities, we're looking at 3 or 4 inches 
for the south metro, with amounts closer to 2 inches in the north 
metro. Out in WI, 4 or 5 inches looks to be a reasonable final 
number for when all is said and done. What will eventually put an 
end to this snow is the h5 trough currently dropping into eastern 
NoDak from southern Canada. Subsidence in the wake of this trough 
will quickly cut off the snow, with the only potential for snow 
Sunday into Sunday night being the possibility for flurries with any 
lingering cloud cover, as those clouds will be completely within the 
DGZ.

Through mid-December, if northwest flow and cold temperatures are 
your jam, you will love the vibe MN and WI will be giving off. This 
pattern will also likely feature plenty of snow falling, though it 
won't add up to much. It's a clipper train type of pattern, but one 
of those where we'll likely nickle and dime our way to 3-6 inches of 
snow through the first half of December. As for temperatures, we'll 
have two challenges. First, we're running 4 to 5 degrees above 
normal through the fall, which means any bias corrections will now 
have a high bias, as those biases were developed in a very different 
environment that didn't include the snowpack we now have. We will 
likely have to get through most of the second week of December to de-
bias the bias corrected data. 

As for some specifics, the coldest period of the next week will be 
Wednesday through Wednesday night behind a strong cold front that 
will blow through here Tuesday night. Besides the high moving in, 
skies Wednesday night may end up pretty clear, with the NBM showing 
lows Thursday morning below zero for the entire MPX area, with some 
double digit below zero lows in central MN. Depending on what 
happens with cloud cover, these still may not be cold enough. From a 
climatology perspective, MSP averages December 10th for seeing the 
first sub-zero low of the season, so this would be about a week 
earlier than normal and the earliest we've gone below zero since 
Thanksgiving morning in 2014 saw a low of -4.

Looking at precipitation, we'll be near the tracks for a clipper 
wave train for the next week+. The first chance for some light snow 
will come with the front Tuesday night, then there's a clipper that 
looks to stay mainly to our north Thursday, then another for 
Saturday, another early to mid the following week. Hopefully you get 
the idea, lots of chances for snow, but in all instances 0.25" of 
QPF would be the top end of what we could expect from any wave, so a 
nickle and dime approach to building our seasonal snow total.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Snow has began to taper off in western MN and the ending of
precip will spread east tonight, with snow ending area-wide by
daybreak. LIFR to IFR visibilities are still expected for
southern/eastern MN and WI for the next couple of hours before 
snowfall lessens/stops. MVFR cigs are expected for most of
Sunday morning. However, a brief reduction to IFR looks likely
for western MN (AXN, RWF) near sunrise. Meanwhile, STC and MSP
look to see a brief period of VFR Sunday morning as strato- 
cumulus lifts just enough to exceed 3000 feet. However, low- 
level moistening could result in brief periods of MVFR during 
the afternoon. VFR expected for most terminals Sunday evening,
but RWF and MKT look to see MVFR as stratus arrives from the
southwest. North-northwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots
through this morning before slowing to under 5 knots and 
turning westerly Sunday evening.

KMSP...Visibilities of 1 1/2sm expected until about 08Z before
snow ends. A multi-hour period of VFR looks likely from 13-17Z
Sunday as strato-cu lifts above 3000 feet. However, cigs should
sink back to MVFR for the afternoon before returning to VFR 
Sunday evening/night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR chc IFR cigs late. Wind SW 5-10kts. 
TUE...MVFR chc IFR cigs. Chc -sn overnight. Wind SW 5-10kts. 
WED...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Carver-
     Chippewa-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-
     Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley-Swift-Washington-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-
     Waseca-Watonwan.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le 
     Sueur-Rice.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG