812 
FXUS64 KMOB 300458
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Strong offshore flow may create hazardous conditions for small
   craft over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is 
   expected for Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

An upper trof progresses across the interior eastern states
through Sunday night, with an associated surface low meanwhile
bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the day on
Sunday. Instability looks to remain limited, with just showers
expected with the frontal passage. Have gone with mostly chance 
to likely pops for Sunday, with the higher pops over southeast
Mississippi and interior portions of southwest Alabama. Slight
chance to chance pops follow for Sunday night. A positively 
tilted upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states on 
Sunday then takes on a more meridional orientation while 
traversing the central states Monday into Monday night. The upper 
trof weakens while continuing across the eastern states Tuesday 
into Tuesday night. A surface low develops over the northwest Gulf
on Monday and then is expected to move across the portion of the 
forecast area east of I-65 Monday night before continuing well 
away from the area. This trajectory and the short turn around time
from Sunday's frontal passage will limit the potential for 
instability to improve much before this system moves through. That
said, there's still uncertainty with the trajectory of the 
surface low, and it's possible that sufficient instability could 
be realized over the western Florida panhandle and possibly 
coastal Alabama to warrant concern. Will continue to monitor at 
this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops on Monday, then 
categorical pops follow for Monday night. Rain chances taper to
dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday.

Dry conditions follow for Wednesday while another positively
tilted upper trof advances into the western half of the CONUS. The
upper trof looks to split substantially, with a portion 
continuing quickly across the northeast states Thursday while the 
remainder slowly advances into the central states on Friday. It's 
possible that a cut off upper low may even manage to form near 
the Baja area. This all makes for a rather uncertain upper and 
surface pattern going into Friday and Saturday. That said, there 
appears to be a general consensus for another surface low to 
develop over the northwest Gulf Thursday into Thursday night which
then moves across the marine area or possibly the southern 
portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Have gone 
with chance pops for Thursday then likely pops follow for Friday 
with chance pops for Saturday. Will continue to monitor. Overnight
lows tend to remain above seasonable values through the period 
except for Tuesday night when lows range from the mid/upper 20s 
well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast. Daytime highs will 
be near seasonable values except for Tuesday through Thursday when
highs tend to range from the 50s well inland to lower/mid 60s at 
the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through 
Monday, with a high risk for Monday night and Tuesday. A moderate 
risk follows for Tuesday night, then a low risk is expected for 
Wednesday and Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A cold front approaching from the west moves through on Sunday,
with predominately light easterly winds switching to the north at
5-10 knots. VFR conditions are expected overnight, then an
IFR/MVFR ceiling develops in the wake of the frontal passage and
persists into Sunday evening. Scattered to numerous showers are
expected Sunday, with the highest coverage over southeast
Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Isolated to scattered
showers are expected for much of the area Sunday evening. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Light to moderate easterly winds switch to the northeast on Sunday 
as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to 
occasionally strong Sunday night then a southeasterly flow develops 
on Monday. Winds become northwesterly late Monday night into early 
Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft
Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, possibly into the afternoon. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      50  69  50  66 /  10  40  20  50 
Pensacola   55  71  56  69 /   0  30  20  50 
Destin      55  71  56  70 /  10  30  30  50 
Evergreen   43  68  45  66 /  10  40  30  50 
Waynesboro  45  57  41  57 /  30  70  30  60 
Camden      42  59  43  60 /  10  60  20  50 
Crestview   45  72  51  68 /   0  30  30  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$