365 
FXUS61 KBUF 290717
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
217 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will weaken southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario 
through this morning. High pressure will cross the area and bring a 
brief period of mainly dry weather today. Another area of low 
pressure will bring a round of light rain and snow, along with 
breezy to windy conditions later Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS MORNING...

An upper level trough is located across the Northeast and eastern 
Canada this morning. Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes 
continues to depart to the east, while cool, northwest flow 
continues across the eastern Great Lakes region. Lake effect snow 
showers will weaken through the day as deep moisture retreats to the 
northeast and surface high pressure builds into the region from the 
south. Westerly winds will continue to weaken today. Highs will 
reach the low 30s across the higher terrain, to the mid 30s across 
the lake plains. 

Off Lake Erie...A few narrow lake effect snow bands and light snow 
showers continue across the western Southern Tier this morning. As 
subsidence increases and equilibrium levels lower, snow showers will 
continue to weaken this morning. An additional dusting to two inches 
of snow are possible early this morning. Lake Effect Snow Warnings 
are no longer in effect. 

Off Lake Ontario...Multiple bands of lake effect snow will continue 
from Wayne to far southern Oswego counties this morning. An upstream 
connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will support intermittent 
heavy snow into the Finger Lakes region. As deep moisture retreats 
to the northeast, snow showers will weaken through this morning. A 
Lake Effect Snow Warning for Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern 
Oswego counties is set to expire at 7AM this morning. An additional 
two to four inches of localized accumulation is expected through 
daybreak. 

Surface high pressure will move off the east coast this evening and 
a southerly flow will increase overnight. A shortwave trough will 
become negatively tilted as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region. 
A surface low with an expansive pressure gradient will move into 
Lower Michigan. The nose of a 50 knot low-level jet will spread 
across the forecast area, and overrunning will produce a light 
snowfall across the region. Accumulations will be light, around an 
inch for majority of the area, however a slight enhancement of 
snowfall is expected across the far western NY and Tug Hill where 
one to three inches are expected. Downsloping from a southeasterly 
wind will limit accumulation from southern Erie county eastward into 
the Finger Lakes region and across the northern Tug Hill region. The 
southeasterly surface winds will also produce gusty winds, in 
particular along the Chautauqua Ridge with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. 
Temperatures will rise the second half of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of low pressure passing by to our west Sunday morning will 
push its warm frontal segment through the region. As this feature 
crosses the Lower Lakes it will bring a period of light synoptic 
snow which transitions to a rain-snow mix or plain rain as boundary 
layer temps warm. That said...higher terrain may still see p-type 
remain all snow. This will 'likely' be the case east of Lake Ontario 
(Tug Hill) where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Lewis 
Co. 

Otherwise...in terms of snowfall amounts look for a general 1-3", 
with higher terrain potentially seeing the top end of this amount. 
Where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued (Lewis Co.) there is 
the potential for 3-8", especially across the Tug Hill.  

Wind...

As low pressure passes by the region it will then send its cold 
front through Sunday afternoon-evening, A tight pressure gradient 
and a strong 850mb LLJ (+50 knots) aloft will support wind gusts up 
to 50 mph within a fully mixed CAA regime. The strongest winds will 
be found northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, and along the immediate 
lake shore. 

-Lake effect...

As a colder airmass pours into the Lower Lakes and deepens Sunday 
evening, a brief Lake response will take place off both lakes. 
Initially...a band of lake effect rain or rain-snow mix will 
transition over to snow northeast of lake Erie. However...it will 
quickly push south as wind flow veers to the west then northwest. 
The same will occur off Lake Ontario Sunday night, just with a bit 
of a lag time behind the front. The key take away here...the bands 
off both the lakes quickly move south, this will limit accumulations 
with maybe 1-3" at best. 

Any remaining lake snows will end by Monday morning as synoptic 
moisture depletes. High pressure builds in from the west and 
overhead Monday afternoon, bringing a brief period of quieter 
weather but chilly conditions. Temperatures for Monday behind the 
passing front are expected to only reach the mid 20s to low 30s for 
most areas, with a few low 20s possible for the higher terrain east 
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave cutting across the nations mid-section and gulf moisture 
will potentially work in concert to spawn a coastal low Monday night 
through Tuesday. However...model certainty still remains high as 
some guidance show the low further off the coast, but the 
possibility for the northwestern precipitation shield to cross the 
area is still present. This system exits off to our northeast 
Wednesday, with a brief break ahead of the next cold front which 
brings in a much colder airmass to the region to round out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Erie and 
Lake Ontario this morning. Snow showers are noticeably weakening east 
of Lake Erie with improving visibility at KJHW. Heavier snow showers 
will continue between KROC and KFZY this morning. VFR conditions 
will continue outside of lake effect activity with brief periods of 
MVFR/IFR condition in lake effect snow showers. 

Improving flight conditions across the region today. Light snow 
arrives from west to east late tonight. VFR conditions will become 
MVFR/IFR at times. 

Outlook... 

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of 
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some scattered snow showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep area of low pressure over eastern Quebec will slowly move off 
the Atlantic coast today. Westerly winds and waves will diminish 
today. Small Craft Advisories will end across Lake Erie and western 
Lake Ontario this morning, and across eastern Lake Ontario this 
afternoon. 

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the 
central Great Lakes Sunday. Confidence is increasing that this will 
bring another round of gales to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and 
therefore a Gale Watch was issued for Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for 
     NYZ004>006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday 
     for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night 
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for 
         LOZ042.
         Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for 
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for 
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM/Thomas