379 
FXHW60 PHFO 290138
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
338 PM HST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light southeast winds are expected to remain in place through the
next few days. Stable air will keep most areas dry, though 
daytime sea breezes could increase cloud cover over the islands 
each day, followed by clearing at night. By the middle of next 
week, a cold front could increase shower chances over the western 
islands as it approaches and moves through. Trade winds are 
expected to return during the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest regional satellite imagery shows a deep, large low 
pressure system far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure is centered around 1000 miles to the 
northeast with a ridge axis extending overhead. This ridging has 
resulted in light southeast background winds prevailing across the
state, with stable, dry conditions in place. Due to the light 
nature of the background flow, daytime sea breezes have increased 
cloud cover over some interior and leeward locations, but these 
clouds will clear overnight as land breezes resume.

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through
the weekend as a front north of the state approaches, stalls, and
dissipates before reaching the islands. Light southeasterly background
winds with daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes will 
continue. Rainfall will be scarce, as the ridge overhead will 
support mostly dry conditions. Additionally, the light southeast 
flow will continue the potential for vog generated from the 
recent eruption of Kilauea to spread over the islands for the next
few days. 

Early next week, an initial cold front will approach the state
and stall to our northwest. However, this will quickly be followed
by a second front, driven by a strong upper trough approaching on
Tuesday. Global models continue to indicate that this front could
move through Niihau and Kauai on Wednesday, possibly reaching 
Oahu and stalling by Thursday. Should it materialize, breezy 
northeasterly trade winds will build back into the region and 
rainfall chances will increase for the middle to late part of next
week across the western islands. However, there remains a lot of 
uncertainty in the long range forecast, and details will become 
more clear as the time approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light southeast winds will continue with prevailing VFR 
conditions expected at most sites.

No airmets in effect. 

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure over the islands is forecast to remain in
place through the next several days, keeping light to moderate 
southeasterly winds with local land/sea breezes. There is
potential for a front to approach Kauai around the middle of next
week. If this occurs, moderate to breezy NW winds can be expected
in the wake of the front, while continuing light to moderate east
southeast winds will be east of the front. Currently, models
indicate the front stalling near Kauai before getting pushed to
the west. An XL northwest swell will build rapidly on Saturday, 
peak Sunday, and slowly decline on Monday. This will increase seas
above Small Craft Advisory heights (above 10 feet) tomorrow 
through next week. 

The northwest swell that provided High Surf Advisory surf heights 
this morning will continue declining tonight. Surf across north 
and west facing shores will likely look fairly small tomorrow 
morning before an XL NW swell builds rapidly in the afternoon 
through the evening. This swell is expected to bring surf heights 
up to 35 to 45 feet at most north and west facing shores with 
larger waves at select outer reefs. An altimeter pass from earlier
today reflected swell numbers consistent with model predictions, 
boosting confidence in the forecasted surf numbers. This swell 
will peak Sunday morning, and slowly decline on Monday. A High 
Surf Warning is in place for the N and W facing shores of the 
smaller islands, with another separate warning expected for the 
west facing shores of the Big Island. The reason for the separate 
warning is that the timing of the swell will be slightly later for
the western Big Island. Another moderate to large NW swell is 
possible for the second half of next week from another potential 
Gale to Storm force low that is forecast to develop in the NW 
Pacific.

East shore surf will remain small through the weekend due to weak
winds. Select south-facing shores could experience westerly wrap 
from this weekend's large northwest swell passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected this weekend into early next week, 
with relative humidity values falling into the low- to mid-40 
percent range for some leeward locations each afternoon Saturday 
through Monday. However, weak winds will prevent critical fire 
weather thresholds from being reached.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning from noon Saturday to noon HST Monday for 
north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai,
and for north facing shores of Maui.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to noon HST Monday for 
Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward 
Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui 
County Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...Wroe/Pechacek
MARINE...Tsamous 
FIRE WEATHER...Vaughan