169 
FXUS64 KMOB 282319
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
519 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches Friday night through Monday. A high rip current
   risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday.

 - Low relative humidity values on Friday along with the  
   potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire 
   danger and will be monitored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

An upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal 
upper flow setting up over the Southeast into the weekend. Upper 
level shortwave energy ahead of a deep upper trough digs south 
over the western Conus the rest of the work week. Surface high 
pressure north of the forecast area at this time moves to the East
Coast by late Saturday, restoring onshore flow to the forecast 
area and nearby tonight into Saturday. The current dry airmass 
over the forecast area (precipitable h20 values of 0.20-0.33") 
begins to moisten Saturday, rising to around 1.3-1.5" Sunday. The 
zonal upper flow over the Southeast helps to direct the stronger 
upper trough well north of the northern Gulf coast as it moves 
east from the western Conus. Weaker impulses pass over the region 
over region Sunday, with a cold front moving over the forecast 
area late Sunday into Sunday night. This front stalls over the 
northern Gulf by Monday. More shortwave energy moves over the 
northern Gulf coast Monday into Tuesday, guidance is advertising a
surface low developing on the stalled surface front over the 
northwestern Gulf Monday, then moving northeast over/near the 
forecast area late Monday/Monday night (ultimate path and timing 
of passage vary in the guidance). Isentropic upglide showers 
develop ahead of the developing surface low, with enough 
instability just north of the boundary and points south for 
rumbles to mix in. With the inconsistency in the guidance, have 
less confidence on where the rumbles occur or any types/placement 
of rowdy storms. Inconsistency in model solutions continue through
the end of the forecast, with some models advertising a passing 
shortwave bringing rain back to the forecast area late Thursday 
through Friday. 

Taking a step back and looking at Sunday's weather, instability is 
modest (MUCapes < 1000J/kg) and confined to the coast and south. 
Guidance is advertising some upper divergence with the passing 
shortwave energy, along with Bulk Wind Shear around 40kts coincident 
with the instability, mainly near the coast. Enough directional wind 
shear for spinners will be confined to areas along and south of the 
front. Where remains hard to pin down, with guidance indicating some 
northward movement of the stalled boundary inland as a warm front, 
but quick passage of the passing energy, plus ultimate positioning 
of the stalling cold front, northward movement of the warm front 
will be limited and confined to areas south of I-10 at its most 
northerly. Will need to keep an eye on this. 

High temperatures are going to see a roller coaster through the 
forecast, with mid 50s to near 60 today rising to around 60 
northwestern areas to low 70s southeast of I-65 Sunday. The same 
northwest to southeast gradient continues through Tuesday, though 
drops into the low 50s northwest of New Augusta to Thomasville line 
to the low 60s over coastal Florida. By Friday, high temperatures 
have climbed back into the 60s over the forecast area. Low 
temperatures see the same roller coast, with low to mid 30s north of 
I-10/upper 30s to around 40 south tonight rising to the mid 40s 
northeast to low 50s over the southwestern third of the forecast 
area Saturday night. Sunday's system shifts the temperatures over 
the forecast area to a northwest to southeast banding, with around 
40 northwestern-most portions of the forecast area to the upper 50s 
well south of I-65. 30s return to most of the forecast area Tuesday 
night.

Offshore flow shifts to onshore this weekend, with a Moderate to 
High Rip Risk through the weekend into the coming week.
/16  

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Saturday.
Predominately light northerly winds become easterly overnight, 
then a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots develops on Saturday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds last into Saturday, then 
diminish. Direction shifts to easterly Saturday, then southeast to 
south Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front crossing area waters 
late Sunday into Sunday night shifts flow to offshore for a short 
period. A system passes over area waters late Monday into Monday 
night, bringing moderate to strong variable direction winds before 
moderate to strong offshore flow returns for Tuesday into mid week 
after the system passes. 
/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to around 25% on Friday for 
much of the area, potentially 20-25% over south central Alabama and 
the western Florida panhandle. While surface dewpoints begin to 
increase on Saturday, relative humidity values of 20-25% are 
anticipated mainly over interior south central Alabama. 20 ft wind 
speed values are expected to remain below 15 mph both days, and the 
Significant Fire Potential values will be low or less which will 
preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. Out 
of caution, will continue to message the potential for an elevated 
fire danger for Friday as it was already in our Key Messages.
/29/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      40  65  52  70 /   0   0  10  40 
Pensacola   44  63  56  72 /   0   0  10  30 
Destin      44  65  56  71 /   0   0  10  30 
Evergreen   32  62  45  68 /   0   0  10  40 
Waynesboro  33  60  46  59 /   0   0  40  60 
Camden      33  59  43  59 /   0   0  20  60 
Crestview   33  63  47  71 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$