575 
FXUS62 KJAX 281757
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1257 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Today. Be Very Cautious with
Outdoor Fires  Check for Local Burn Bans as Severe to

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue at Inland Locations

- Freeze Watch Inland Late Tonight Into Early Saturday Morning.
Mainly Inland Southeast GA. Patchy Frost across Inland Southeast GA
into the Suwannee Valley

- Small Craft Advisories through This Evening

- High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida beaches Today

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong
Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure to the northwest will become centered to the north 
Tonight. The position of the high will yield an onshore flow along 
the coast. The air moving over the relatively warmer coastal waters 
Tonight will result in a sharp gradient in temperatures from east to 
west. Lows will range from the lower 30s over inland SE GA, to the 
upper 40s over coastal NE FL. 

A light freeze with frost can be expected over inland SE GA, and 
patchy frost for the Suwannee valley of NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday, high pressure will shift east from central appalachians to 
the Mid Atlantic coast. East to northeasterly flow between the 
inverted trough to the east and strong high pressure to the north to 
northeast will bring breezy easterly winds 10-15 mph with gusts 
higher 25-30 mph from the pinched local pressure gradient. Onshore 
low level flow will moderate moisture levels enough to erode the 
very low dewpoints while Atlantic stratocumulus clouds stream onto 
the coast and inland across much of NE FL. Warmer highs expected 
compared to Friday with low/mid 60s over SE GA, upper 60s along I-10 
and much of the coast with low 70s across north central FL.

Saturday night, southeasterly flow aloft will end potential for 
temperatures near freezing with lows only falling into the 40s 
inland and the upper 40s and low 50s over NE FL, but more moderate 
over the coast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 

Sunday, a potent shortwave trough will swing through the Great Lakes 
with an associated surface low moving across MI to southern Ontario, 
while ridging aloft shifting well into the Atlantic waters pulls 
surface high pressure well away to the northeast. Inverted troughing 
will persist to the east as a cold front approaches from the west, 
lifting a warm front into central FL with light easterly to east 
northeasterly winds veering southwesterly over inland SE GA where a 
quick shower is possible as southerly flow aloft increases moisture 
levels. Highs will rebound into the low/mid 70s over SE GA and the 
upper 70s to near 80 over NE FL.  

Sunday night, as the cold front nears the area, skies will become 
mostly cloudy with light east to northeast winds, but only isolated 
showers due to weak convergence ahead of the front. Lows will be in 
the low 50s for SE GA and the mid to upper 50s over NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday, mid/upper level shortwave trough will exit the NE US and 
support a cold front drifting south, then stalling across NE FL as 
strong high pressure shifts into the OH valley with northeasterly 
winds. Rain chances will not be too significant Monday with pops 20-
30 percent. Strong high pressure building across the OH valley with 
bring a contrast of high temperatures north of the stalled front 
with mid to upper 60s over SE GA, but warming into the upper 70s 
into north central FL.   

Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough moving swiftly eastward from the 
southern plains into the TN valley will spur a developing surface 
low across the deep south states that will move ENE to the Carolinas 
by late in the day. A strong cold front will move eastward along the 
Gulf coast with increasing low level jet winds of 40-50 knots that 
may contribute to stronger T'storm forming if enough instability 
occurs. This low CAPE high shear (around 45-55 knots of 0-6km bulk 
shear) setup will be monintored closely, especially as the exact 
track of the surface low becomes better defined over the weeekend. 
Strong convergence along the cold front and PWATs rising above the 
90th percentile (over 1.75 inches) will support numerous to 
widespread showers and isolated T'storms. Overall rainfall amounts 
will average near a quarter to a half inch with amounts lessening 
into the NE FL coast and north central FL, through high end NBM 
guiidance supports locally heavier amounts of 2-3 inches across 
inland SE GA. Highs will warm into the mid/upper 70s over NE FL and 
and low 70s over SE GA cooling into the upper 60s near the Altamaha 
river.   

Wedneday, surface high pressure will build across the TN and OH 
valleys with a cooler and drier airmass filtering into the region 
through Thursday as the high builds to the north. Highs will be in 
the 60s each day with lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the NE FL 
coast/north central FL Wednesday morning and upper 30s to low 40s 
inland Thursday morning to low 50s along the NE FL coast.  

Friday, another storm system will develop along the Gulf coast with 
a warm front lifting north towards the area from the south. Limiting 
pops to the 20-40 percent range due to uncertianty in the track and 
timing of this next system. Increasing clouds and easterly winds 
will limt highs to near to a little below normal in the 60s over SE 
GA and into NE FL with low 70s into north central FL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this period. Winds will be gusty during 
the day time hours Today and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure to the northwest Today, will become centered to the 
north Tonight, then northeast on Saturday. The high will track away 
Saturday night into Sunday, as weak troughing develops over the 
coastal waters. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of 
the Gulf Monday into Monday night, with its cold front moving 
southeast across local area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High 
pressure will build behind this system for mid week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday
              NE FL High Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


...CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THIS 
AFTERNOON...

...AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY...

Strong high pressure will build north of the region through tonight 
with a very dry airmass remaining over the area producing Min RH 
values 15-20 percent through late this afternoon. The critically low 
RH values and winds from the north 10-15 mph will produce near 
elevated fire weather conditions. Moisture will recover Saturday as 
high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic 
coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by 
afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30 mph, but with min RH levels 
above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will 
create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly 
winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold 
front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds 
will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase 
Monday as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger 
storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T'storms 
with a wetting rainfall across most of the area. 

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A light freeze expected tonight 
into early Saturday morning across inland southeast Georgia with 
areas of frost into the Suwannee Valley. Significant fog is not 
expected over the next few nights.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  29  62  43  73 /   0   0   0  10 
SSI  44  65  53  72 /   0   0  10  10 
JAX  37  68  51  78 /   0  10   0  10 
SGJ  47  70  59  77 /   0   0  10  10 
GNV  37  71  51  81 /   0   0   0  10 
OCF  39  72  53  80 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151-152-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ452-
     454-472-474.

&&

$$