284 
FXUS63 KMPX 281218
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long duration winter storm begins this evening across
  southwestern Minnesota. Snow will spread over southern-eastern 
  Minnesota through western Wisconsin tonight through Saturday 
  evening. Multiple inches of snow are likely, especially across
  southern Minnesota.

- A Winter Storm warning has been expanded northward in
  Minnesota to include Redwood County over to Goodhue County. 
  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of 
  western Wisconsin late Friday night through Saturday.

- Temperatures turn colder behind this early weekend system,
  with highs in the teens and lows a few degrees on either 
  side of zero Sunday and Monday. Wind chills will drop below 
  zero both mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

In the very near term, all is quiet early this morning. An area 
of low stratus covering portions of northern and eastern 
Minnesota through western Wisconsin has helped keep temperatures
in the lower 20s versus the clear slot over much of western and
southern Minnesota, where temps currently are in the teens to 
single digits. A few isolated pockets of flurries are occurring 
this morning mainly east of the I-35 corridor. These pockets of 
snowfall are not expected to produce anything more than a trace.

Our eyes remain focused on the evolution of our next system  
arriving today. An upper-level trough located over the 
Intermountain West will continue to deepen as it moves ESE'ward 
over the course of today. As this occurs, a surface low develops
just east of the Rockies which will aid in providing warm 
advection up through the Northern Plains. Frontogenesis occurs 
first over the Dakotas this afternoon producing light snowfall 
which then moves into southwestern Minnesota later this evening.
By early Saturday, the upper-level trough digs over Iowa and 
then ejects the aforementioned surface low into Central Plains. 
Snowfall coverage will become widespread through the course of 
the day on Saturday across southern Minnesota and into western 
Wisconsin. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this system 
will be driven by an inverted trough which will allow for 
isentropic upglide to occur during much of Saturday. What this 
means is that snowfall duration is expected to persist through 
much of Saturday. Cold dry air moves in quickly after the low 
passes to our south. Snow coverage will decrease Saturday 
evening across western Minnesota followed by eastern Minnesota 
and western Wisconsin Saturday night. After blending in latest 
guidance, snowfall totals have increased farther north into 
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Heaviest snowfall totals remain fixed 
across southern Minnesota where 7-10" could accumulate Saturday.
Farther north is where upgrades in headlines were needed. Given
the uptick in forecasted snow totals, Redwood County over to 
Goodhue County were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The 
Winter Weather Advisory was expanded slightly to now include 
Swift County in Minnesota and St. Croix County over to Chippewa 
County in Wisconsin then south. Areas within the advised areas 
can expected 3 to 6 inches of snow with a sharp gradient of 2 to
4 inches along the northern periphery of the advisory area. 
Even the Twin Cities metro will get in on the appreciable north-
to-south gradient of snowfall, with the northern metro closer 
to the 3-4" amounts while the southern metro will likely receive
closer to the 5-6" amounts.

Given the track of this low pressure system being well south of 
our immediate area, Canadian high pressure may at times undercut
some of the snow development at times. Snowfall rates for this 
event are expected to be on the lighter side thanks to the lack 
of any nearby mesoscale feature to force heavier rates. Winds 
continue to appear below 20 mph mitigating concerns for blowing 
snow potential. After this system passes, temperatures will 
remain cold for the first half of the week with highs in the 
teens and lows in the single digits to a few degrees below zero.
Wind chills these mornings will likely fall near or below zero.
A short-lived warmup occurs Wednesday back into the 20s however
a dry cold front kicks us back into the teens Thursday. A 
clipper moves through the northern plains late next week which 
provides our next potential of precip.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Mid-level stratus continues to linger from northern MN into
western WI this morning, mainly over the WI TAF sites, while the
MN TAF sites start out as VFR (except AXN which, due to light
winds, is experiencing intermittent stratus under 1kft thru
sunrise). Post-sunrise, AXN will likely deal with MVFR ceilings
while the remaining TAF sites will run as VFR through this
afternoon. The incoming winter storm system for tonight will
produce snowfall into southwestern MN this evening then
gradually pushing eastward overnight through Saturday, with
conditions expected to steadily deteriorate mainly during the
overnight hours through midday Saturday. Ceilings will drop to
MVFR with the onset of light VFR snow, then as snow becomes more
steady, visibilities will also drop into MVFR levels overnight
then to IFR levels after daybreak on Saturday, where
visibilities are then expected to remain through the day. IFR
ceilings are not expected at this time, but ceilings may well
drop below 2kft. Winds are not expected to contribute to the
degraded visibilities with the falling snow, as light NW winds
this morning will drop to near calm later today through this
evening, then lightly pick up from the E and NE overnight
through tomorrow morning with speeds under 10kts through midday
Saturday.

KMSP...VFR through the daylight hours today, then conditions
deteriorate tonight with the onset of steady snowfall. Have
began the prevailing snow at 07z but there may be some wiggle
room as early as 05z with intermittent snow showers but once the
sustained snowfall begins, then it is expected to continue
through the duration of this TAF set. Ceilings/visibility to
remain within MVFR levels overnight then visibility is expected
to drop to IFR post-sunrise and remain as such through the day.
This snow is expected to be a powdery-type snow with mainly
light intensity, possibly moderate at times Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. 
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST 
     Saturday night for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Renville-Sibley-
     Swift-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST 
     Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-
     McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST 
     Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le 
     Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday 
     for Goodhue.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday 
     for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC