636 
FXUS62 KJAX 281128
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
628 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Friday. Be Very Cautious with
Outdoor Fires  Check for Local Burn Bans as Severe to

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue at Inland Locations

- Light Freezes on Friday & Saturday Mornings Inland. Freeze Warnings
Issued Early Friday for Most Inland Locations. Freeze Watch for
Inland Southeast Georgia Saturday Morning

- Small Craft Advisories through Friday Evening

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong
Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunny, breezy, and chilly today. After an inland morning freeze and 
wind chills in the 30s through 9 am, highs will only reach the 50s 
for most today near 60 toward Marion-Putnam and Flagler counties. 
These highs are about 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of 
year. Gusty northwest to north winds will range from near 20-25 mph 
inland to near 30 mph along the coast. 

Winds begin to become NNE this evening to ENE tonight as a coastal 
trough begins to form over the local waters. The onshore flow will 
moderate temperatures near coastal areas with lows in the 40s 
extending inland toward the I-95 corridor of SE GA and the northeast 
Florida St. Johns River basin tonight, while min temperatures below 
40 are expected once again farther inland across SE GA and the 
Suwannee River Valley. Higher confidence of another light freeze 
will be across inland SE GA where a Freeze Watch was posted through 
daybreak Saturday morning. For the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL, a 
frost event is more likely where temps will reach the mid/upper 30s 
tonight, but confidence of a heavy frost is not high enough for a 
Frost Advisory at this time given increasing high clouds from the 
west through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another chilly morning is expected Saturday, with mostly cloudy 
skies keeping high temperatures below normal in the upper 50s to low 
70s. A developing coastal trough will increase the pressure 
gradient, allowing for breezy onshore winds Saturday, helping keep 
coastal temperatures cooler during the day and more mild overnight. 
Lows Saturday will remain above 40 degrees area-wide, so there are 
no frost/freeze concerns.  

Southwesterly steering flow will develop Sunday ahead of an incoming 
cold front. Moisture and warm air advection will raise temperatures 
after a cooler past few days, highs will reach the 70s area-wide, 
near 80 in north central Florida. After sunset Sunday, isolated 
showers will enter the forecast area, lingering through the night. 
More beneficial rainfall totals and thunderstorm coverage will 
increase early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With a cold front approaching from the west, and a lifting warm 
front moving north across the Florida panhandle, an increase in 
moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday 
evening. Beneficial rainfall will primarily fall over southeast 
Georgia, where much of the severe to extreme drought currently 
persists.

Precipitation chances Monday are at about 20-30% as south/southwest 
steering flow brings PWATs near or above 1.5 inches. Further 
moister advection from strengthening low pressure will increase 
rainfall chances to 60-80% across northeast Florida and southeast 
Georgia on Tuesday. A low level southwesterly jet of 40-50 knots at 
850 millibars may favor strong storm development on Tuesday 
afternoon. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s in 
southeast Georgia, to upper 70s for portions of northeast Florida 
both days. 

After the front passes Tuesday night, drier air will move in and 
temperatures will be cooler in the upper 50s to 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this period. Winds will be gusty during 
the day Today.

&&

.MARINE...


Gusty northerly winds and elevated seas will continue Small Craft 
Advisory conditions today as high pressure builds north of the 
region. Onshore flow weakens tonight into Saturday as the high 
builds to the northeast. A coastal trough develops Sunday and Monday 
with a few coastal showers. A stronger frontal system approaches 
late Monday into Tuesday with southerly winds nearing Small Craft 
levels over at least the outer waters and a chance of thunderstorms. 
The front is expected to push south of the local waters by Tuesday 
evening. High pressure builds quickly over the region Tuesday night 
into Wednesday with northerly winds below Small Craft levels.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday
              NE FL High Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


     LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND AREAS 
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A very dry air mass will persist across our region on Friday, 
creating long durations of critically low humidity values at all 
inland locations in the 15-25% range. Breezy northerly transport 
winds during the morning hours will weaken slightly during the late 
afternoon hours, with surface speeds expected to remain below Red 
Flag Warning criteria. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are 
expected area-wide. Surface and transport winds will shift to east-
northeasterly by early Saturday morning and then easterly by 
Saturday afternoon, with breezy transport speeds area-wide. These 
breezy winds will create good daytime dispersion values, with 
marginally high values possible in the Ocala National Forest. 
Surface and transport winds will then diminish as they shift to 
southeasterly by Sunday morning and southerly at inland locations by 
Sunday afternoon, with elevated mixing heights yielding fair to good 
daytime dispersion values throughout our area. 

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A light freeze is expected Friday 
night and early Saturday morning for inland southeast Georgia and 
the Suwannee Valley, where areas to patchy frost formation is 
possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  31  61  43  74 /   0   0   0  10 
SSI  43  65  56  72 /   0   0   0  10 
JAX  39  68  52  78 /   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  47  70  59  77 /   0   0   0  10 
GNV  38  71  52  80 /   0   0   0  10 
OCF  39  71  53  79 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for 
     GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-
     470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ452-
     454-472-474.

&&

$$