530 
FXUS64 KLZK 280906
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
306 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 + Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible Saturday 
   through very early Sunday, Winter weather is not expected at
   this time. 

+  Colder air returns for early next week as another system
   moves through the region. Some light winter weather can not 
   be discounted Monday but overall impacts appear minimal at 
   this time.

+ Guidance continue to be inconsistent with the overall possibility
  and placement of winter weather. 

+ Temperatures through the entire period will continue to run 
  below average even for late November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Not many value added changes will be made to the forecast package 
this morning as no significant changes are noted versus this time 
last night. Overall progressive pattern will continue with a couple 
of storm systems to deal with including the possibility of at the 
very least, a taste of some winter weather. 

Satellite imagery this morning shows partly cloudy to mainly clear 
conditions across the region courtesy of weak surface ridging. 
Temperatures are on the chilly side with the majority of observation 
platforms in the lower to mid 30s. Increasing clouds cover is 
expected later today as the next upper trough drops into western 
high plains this evening. Surface reflection, over SE colorado this 
evening, will lift to the NE and into the Eastern Great Lakes 
come Sunday morning. 

Warm nose still evident and with quasi-zonal flow in place, only 
liquid precipitation is expected from this feature. It appears that 
today will be dry with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving 
through tonight into early Sunday morning. Temperatures will be a
touch cooler versus the past few days but nothing unusual for 
late November. QPF not overly impressive with upwards on a inch 
possible from this system and although isolated thunderstorms are 
expected, severe weather is not.

As the surface cyclone lifts to the NE, it will drag a cold front 
through the state with another surge of cold air following its 
passage. The cold air looks to arrive once the best moisture exits 
the region but high temperatures on Sunday are not expected to get 
out of the mid 30s across the north to the mid 40s over the south. 

Surface high pressure to the north of the state will provide a dry 
Sunday but also keep a north to northeast surface flow in place as 
it slides to the east. Meanwhile, a much sharper trough will be 
digging into the central Rockies turning the upper flow around to
the SW. A fairly weak area of low pressure along the gulf coast 
will throw moisture into the cold air mass over the state with the
possibility of some winter weather Monday with temperatures 
holding in the 30s. 

Models remain widely inconsistent concerning the timing, intensity 
and placement of any potential weather. Current thinking is more in 
line with the ECMWF solution that would result in some snow across 
the north. GFS seems a little overdone with its ZR and has been 
adjusted accordingly. Regardless, POPS are only in the chance 
category and QPF is not overly impressive with less than a tenth 
of an inch where the coldest air will reside with up to a quarter 
of an inch of QPF over the south. In addition, no significant 
period of cold air will proceed this system and soil temperatures 
remain in the 40s which will help mitigate impacts.

Guidance continues to point to this cold snap being short lived with 
temperatures rising back into the 40s Tuesday and beyond but these 
readings remain below climatological averages. Minimal rain chances 
return Thursday to close out the period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. FEW-
SCT high clouds will give way to lowering ceilings from west to
east aoa 7 kft at the end of the period. Generally light to
southeast winds through the period, although southeast winds may 
begin to increase across the northern TAF sites where some gusts
15-20 kts may occur late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  37  50  29 /   0  70 100  40 
Camden AR         55  39  54  32 /   0  60  90  80 
Harrison AR       52  37  49  23 /   0  90 100  20 
Hot Springs AR    54  38  52  28 /   0  80 100  60 
Little Rock   AR  54  39  52  32 /   0  70 100  60 
Monticello AR     55  40  56  35 /   0  20  90  90 
Mount Ida AR      56  39  54  27 /   0  90 100  50 
Mountain Home AR  51  37  47  25 /   0  90 100  30 
Newport AR        51  39  49  30 /   0  50 100  60 
Pine Bluff AR     53  39  53  31 /   0  50  90  90 
Russellville AR   56  39  52  29 /   0  80 100  30 
Searcy AR         52  37  49  29 /   0  60 100  50 
Stuttgart AR      52  39  51  32 /   0  40 100  80 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...77