582 
FXHW60 PHFO 280146
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
346 PM HST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light southeast flow will continue through the weekend due to a
ridge near Kauai and fronts weakening to the west. Stable air and
relatively low inversion heights will help keep the state fairly 
dry through the weekend with daytime sea breezes and nighttime
land breezes. A front will approach the area in the middle of 
next week, potentially bringing an increase in rainfall and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge is located near Kauai this afternoon with light
southeast flow across the state. Soundings from 00Z show a 7000 
foot inversion at Hilo and a very weak 5000 foot inversion at 
Lihue with a precipitable water value of 0.83 inches. Visible 
satellite and radar show dry conditions with some interior clouds
across each island. Land breezes will dissipate the cloud cover
tonight.

Southeast winds will strengthen a little bit Friday across the
eastern half of the state, but overall dry pattern with interior
cloud build ups in the afternoon and clear nights will be the
story through the weekend as a front approaches, stalls and
dissipates before reaching the islands. Daytime highs will be in 
the low to mid 80s, but feel a bit warmer with the light winds, 
while vog will continue to track up over the smaller islands at 
times due to the southeast flow.

Another front will approach from the west Monday and Tuesday and
stall over or just to the west of Kauai on Wednesday, with the
ECMWF bringing the front a bit further east than the GFS. Light
southeast flow will continue, but will begin to draw in a bit 
more moisture and humidity over the state during the first half 
of next week. Overall looks like a little bit wetter next week, 
but with the long range models out of sync on the front, impacts a
bit more uncertain.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light east-southwest winds remain in place over the state today, 
which has allowed for daytime sea breezes and some clouds 
developing over interior and leeward areas. However, stable 
conditions have limited shower development. Interior clouds will 
begin to dissipate after sunset as land breezes resume overnight. 
Light to moderate southeast background flow will continue into 
Friday, with daytime sea breezes once again developing over the 
islands. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail over most 
locations into the weekend.

There are no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure located northeast of the state will 
hold light to low end moderate east to southeast breezes through 
Friday. A cold front associated with a large hurricane force low 
moving across the Central Pacific will approach the far western 
islands early next week. Primarily gentle to moderate easterly 
winds will veer more southerly ahead of this slowing front that 
will eventually stall just west of Kauai Tuesday. The front may 
pass across Niihau and Kauai during the middle of next week. If 
this does occur, expect moderate to locally fresh northerly winds 
in the wake of the front. A very large northwest swell will pass 
around the islands from Saturday through Monday. This will 
increase seas to Small Craft Advisory heights (10 feet or higher) 
early next week. 

A moderate size, long period northwest swell that peaked this 
morning has lifted surf to High Surf Advisory (HSA) heights along 
the north and west-facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and 
Molokai and the north-facing shores of Maui. A quick hitting 
reinforcing northwest swell will arrive early Friday morning that 
will help maintain HSA level surf through Friday morning. North 
and west-facing shore surf should significantly drop Friday 
afternoon and evening. 

The hurricane force Central Pacific low currently located 1,400 
nm northwest of Kauai is generating a large fetch of seas. This
fetch is being aimed straight down the northwest great circle 
route toward the islands. The resultant very large northwest swell
will produce XL size surf along north and west-facing small 
island shores Saturday night through Monday morning. Long period 
forerunners will begin arriving Saturday afternoon, then surf will
quickly ramp up Saturday evening. The peak of this event is 
forecast to be from late Saturday night through Sunday morning. 
There is a high potential for giant size surf (40 to 50 feet) 
along the north-facing shores of the smaller islands Saturday 
night into Sunday. A High Surf Warning for these shores will 
likely be in effect from Saturday night into Monday.

East-facing chop will remain small through the weekend due to weak 
winds. Select south-facing shores will likely experience westerly
wrap from this weekend's large northwest swell passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Even though we will see relative humidity levels fall heading into
the weekend, weak winds will preclude reaching critical fire 
weather conditions for the next few days. Temperature inversion 
heights near Big Island and Maui will range between 5000 to 7000 
feet.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until noon HST Friday for north and west 
facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing 
shores of Maui.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Foster
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Blood