913 
FXUS61 KCLE 271208
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
708 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over the northern Great Lakes region will 
maintain a surface trough over the area through Friday. A very brief 
area of high pressure will push east on Saturday before another 
system moves from the Southern Plains northeast across the region on 
Sunday. High pressure returns for the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Far Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania (snowbelt): 

As a strong low pressure system centered over southeast Ontario 
continue to move east, a dominant surface trough will linger across 
the area bringing a notable lake effect snow event to the snowbelt 
in NE OH and NW PA. Heavy lake effect snow has already begun to 
develop across Lake Erie, pushing northeast towards NY. As the upper 
level trough axis pushes east of the area, the predominant southwest 
flow will begin to back and gain a more west-northwest flow. This 
will cause this band of lake effect snow to begin to push inland. 
Currently models suggest that this process will begin around 9Z 
today for Erie County PA and by 12Z elsewhere. Much of the forecast 
remains unchanged in terms of timing and location of lake effect 
snow with this update so not going to rehash all the mesoscale 
details. The only this that did change a bit was the total snowfall 
expected across northern Geauga and south Lake Counties. Hi-res 
guidance has become more consistent in a strong convergence zone 
developing over this area this afternoon into tonight, further 
enhancing any bands that develop. As a result, with this forecast 
update have opted to increase snowfall totals in Lake County (south 
of I-90), far eastern Cuyahoga County, and northern Geauga County 
to be 12-15 inches. Depending where the band sets up and how long it 
lingers over a specific area, locally higher totals are possible. 
Elsewhere across the snowbelt, a broad 8-15 inches of snowfall are 
possible with higher amounts in excess of 18 inches possible across 
inland Erie PA. Given the very conducive environment for lake 
effect, snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible at 
times in the heaviest bands. These rates will not impact the entire 
warning area simultaneously given the nature of lake effect, so 
expected rapidly changing conditions if traveling through the 
snowbelt. This heavy snowfall is expected to impact the holiday 
travel and motorist should use extreme caution with the worst 
conditions expected today and tonight. Conditions will gradually 
improve on Friday as the surface trough begins to push further east 
and lake effect snow showers become more disorganized and drier air 
pushes in. A Lake Effect Snow warning remains in effect for the 
snowbelt through Friday evening. 

In addition to the heavy snow expected to fall, elevated winds from 
the WNW along the lakeshore will likely result in areas of blowing 
snow through tonight. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected to 
persist into tonight which will further enhance hazardous travel 
conditions with blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibilities 
likely. Winds will gradually calm throughout the day on Friday. A 
Wind Advisory remains in effect for this area through late tonight.

High temperatures through this period will be much cooler than 
recent temperatures with highs only climbing into the low to mid 30s 
and overnight lows falling into the low to mid 20s. Given the strong 
winds, wind chill temperatures today and tomorrow will drop into the 
low 20s. Overnight wind chill values are expected to drop into the 
low to mid teens. It is worth noting that temperatures along the 
immediate lakeshore will be a degree or two warmer due to influence 
from Lake Erie. 

Areas Outside of the Snowbelt:

The aforementioned strong low pressure will continue to impact the 
rest of the area as well, but the bulk of conditions should remain 
dry outside of the snowbelt. There is a slight chance that once 
winds shift to more northwesterly, lake effect bands off of Lake 
Michigan may meander southeast across northwest Ohio and the central 
highlands and result in scattered snow showers. This snow potential 
should be isolated to today and tonight before conditions dry out on 
Friday. In addition, gusty winds will linger across the entire area 
today with sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 40-45 mph 
possible. Although winds will remain elevated, given the weakening 
gusts, winds will fall below criteria for a Wind Advisory so the 
ongoing one will be allowed to expire at 4AM today. 


For the entire area, high temperatures through this period will be 
much cooler than recent temperatures with highs only climbing into 
the low to mid 30s and overnight lows falling into the low to mid 
20s. Given the strong winds, wind chill temperatures today and 
tomorrow will drop into the low 20s. Overnight wind chill values are 
expected to drop into the low to mid teens. It is worth noting that 
temperatures along the immediate lakeshore will be a degree or two 
warmer due to influence from Lake Erie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday night, dry air associated with a high pressure building 
east will cut off any lingering lake effect snow showers across far 
NWPA and allow for a brief period of widespread dry conditions 
through Saturday morning. This high pressure will be very brief as 
another potent low pressure system is expected to push northeast out 
of the Southern Plains across the Central Great Lakes region. 
Precipitation associated with this low will spread across the area 
lake Saturday into Sunday, remaining primarily as all snow given the 
sub-freezing temperatures through the vertical. General snowfall 
totals area wide should be 1-2 inches. The exception of this is in 
and around the Toledo Metro area which may see up to 4" of snowfall. 
Exact totals are expected to vary over the next couple forecast 
updates, but worth noting accumulating snow is likely. 

On Sunday, warming temperatures should allow for a transition from 
snow to rain without any issue, however some models continue to 
suggest that there is a very small chance of isolated pockets of 
freezing rain or sleet to mix in early to mid Sunday morning. Will 
continue to monitor this potential, but if it were to occur the area 
most likely impacted would be across the Mahoning Valley. Showers on 
Sunday will gradually end from west to east as the trough axis 
pushes east. Some lingering lake effect snow showers are possible 
Sunday evening into the overnight hours across the snowbelt, but 
accumulations are expected to remain 1-3 inches. 

Temperatures on Saturday will remain cold in the low to mid 50s 
before warming a tad on Sunday back into the mid 30s to low 40s. 
Overnight lows will remain in the upper teens to low 20s through the 
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An active weather pattern will persist through the long term period 
as a weak upper level trough moves a low pressure system from the 
lower Mississippi Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast before it 
becomes a coastal low Monday into Tuesday. This should have limited 
impacts to the area given the positioning north of the center. 
However, models continue to suggest a broad area of isentropic lift 
which will keep a chance of snow showers across the area through 
Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the aforementioned low will approach 
water off of the coast of New England, resulting in a surface trough 
developing and the possible return of lake effect snow showers to 
portions of the snowbelt. Models diverge quite a bit on timing and 
location of this low so confidence is low in any snowfall 
accumulation or timing forecast. Winter temperatures will linger 
with highs expected in the low to mid 30s and overnight lows falling 
into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A band of heavy lake effect snow is located along the lakeshore
from east of Cleveland, OH to Erie, PA at 7 AM. Visibilities 
within this band are a half mile or less and will impact ERI 
through 13Z before starting to shift slightly farther inland. 
ERI will continue to be impacted at times through the morning 
with snow increasing again after 02Z tonight. The snow is 
expected to slowly push inland with time today and scattered 
snow showers will expand to CLE and YNG. Timing of snow showers 
is difficult given the lake effect nature. Deeper moisture does 
expand inland between 18-22Z and expected to have an expansion 
of scattered snow showers this evening. These will be light at 
MFD/CAK but can not rule out occasional IFR visibilites in snow
at CLE/YNG/ERI. 

Gusty winds will continue at all terminals today. Most locations
will have southwest to westerly winds around 15 knots gusting to
25 knots. Winds may be stronger at CLE/ERI where flow off Lake
Erie could result in winds gusting to 35 knots. 

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings will continue through Friday.  
Another system will enter the Great Lakes region Saturday night 
into Sunday, bringing potential for more non-VFR and strong 
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly gales on Lake Erie shift to westerly today. Winds will 
settle into 30-35 knot range on the western basin with winds to 40 
knot gales still on the eastern two thirds of the lake. Waves will 
peak at 12-16 feet on the east end of the lake this morning. The 
Gale Warning west of the Lake Erie Islands goes until 4 AM Friday 
but there is some potential that we may be able to end it a little 
sooner if winds drop below criteria before that time. The
warning continues on the Central and eastern portions of Lake 
Erie until 10 AM Friday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed 
following the Gale until late Friday night on the eastern half 
of the lake. 

Due to the continued strong southwest to westerly winds, a Low Water 
Advisory remains in effect on the western basin of Lake Erie through 
4 AM Friday. The lowest expected water levels occurred Wednesday 
evening. Early Thursday morning the water level was nearly two feet 
below low water datum. Water levels are generally expected to range 
from 1 to 2 feet below low water datum through this evening, 
although may approach the critical mark at times. 

High pressure with good marine conditions will be over Lake Erie on 
Saturday for a brief window. Southerly winds ramp up to 30 knots 
Saturday night as low pressure tracks from the southern Plain into 
the Central Great Lakes. Winds veer to westerly Sunday and 
northwesterly Sunday night and additional Small Craft Advisories are 
likely Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for OHZ010>012-089.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for OHZ011>014-
     089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST 
     Friday for OHZ021>023.
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for 
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10