747 
FXUS64 KLZK 271127
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
527 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

| + Much cooler air continues to sweep into the state through the 
    weekend but no precipitation expected through Friday.

 + Precip is expected Friday night through very early Sunday morning.
   Temperatures will be just warm enough for liquid precipitation 
   although a few snowflakes can not be ruled out as the storm pulls
   out.
 
 + Much colder air follows the weekend system with additional precip
   including the possibility of a brief wintry mix. Model solutions
   continue to differ on the evolution of this storm system. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The latest surface observations/satellite information show a weak 
upper wave moving through the prevailing northwest flow aloft. 
Moisture is of the high level type with no precipitation expected 
and clearing skies anticipated later this morning once the wave 
clears and surface high pressure builds in. After starting the day 
generally in the 30s, temperatures this Thanksgiving day will top 
out in the 50s across the forecast area. Dry conditions are also 
expected for Friday but temperatures will be a touch cooler versus 
what will be seen on Thursday as clouds begin to increase in advance 
of the next storm system. 

Next upper trough will be dropping into the western high plains 
Friday night and will be moving to the east of the region by late
Saturday night or Sunday morning. System may be touch faster than
previous guidance with a few showers possible as early Friday 
evening over the west. Temperatures look to be more than warm 
enough to support liquid precipitation with a warm nose just off 
the surface. Widely scattered thunderstorms are also possible over
mainly the southern half of the state but severe weather is not 
anticipated. 

The surface reflection, located in E/SE Colorado Friday night, will 
race off to the E/NE and be over western Illinois late Saturday and 
the eastern Great lakes by Sunday morning. The system will drag a 
cold front through the state with precipitation ending from NW to SE 
by Sunday morning. The colder air will arrive once the deepest 
moisture exits the region but a few wet snowflakes on the backside 
of the system can not be totally discounted. 

After a quiet, albeit cool, Sunday with high temps only climbing 
into the mid 30s to mid 40s, the forecast becomes more complicated 
to say the least. Progressive pattern remains in place with an upper 
trough digging its way through the four corners region by Monday 
morning. Quazi-zonal flow that was in place during the weekend turns 
to the SW in response while surface flow maintains some type of NE 
to NW component as surface high pressure passes to our north. Energy 
ejecting out of the aforementioned trough and an advancing slug of 
moisture coming in from the southwest that will overtop colder 
air on the surface, could result in a some winter weather. 
Guidance of course is not very helpful at this time frame with a 
myriad of solutions being offered including but not limited to 
timing, available moisture and where the freezing line does 
eventually set up.

It would appear the best time frame to see some winter weather would 
be in the Monday evening to very early Tuesday time frame but the 
deepest moisture could be exiting before the coldest air arrives and 
could confine any winter precip just to the north. POPS are not very 
high regardless and the highest QPF is over the south. Numerous 
outcomes are possible with one large variable being the available 
moisture as a large precipitation shield to our south which often
steals our best moisture time and time again. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mid to high level moisture continues to exit the terminals this
morning as an upper level impulse moves away. In its wake, 
surface high pressure will move in with light northerly winds. 
Widespread VFR conditions are expected. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  30  50  36 /   0   0   0  40 
Camden AR         56  32  54  39 /   0   0   0  40 
Harrison AR       50  29  50  36 /   0   0   0  80 
Hot Springs AR    55  32  53  39 /   0   0   0  60 
Little Rock   AR  54  34  51  39 /   0   0   0  40 
Monticello AR     55  34  53  39 /   0   0   0  20 
Mount Ida AR      57  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  80 
Mountain Home AR  50  28  49  36 /   0   0   0  70 
Newport AR        52  31  49  36 /   0   0   0  30 
Pine Bluff AR     54  32  52  38 /   0   0   0  30 
Russellville AR   56  32  54  39 /   0   0   0  70 
Searcy AR         54  30  51  36 /   0   0   0  30 
Stuttgart AR      53  32  50  39 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56