174 
FXUS63 KLMK 270859
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
359 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chilly but dry Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

* Next system Saturday night into Sunday brings an early onset of 
  rain, snow or a mix before changing over to all rain. 

* Slushy accumulation of a coating to possibly an inch for southern 
  IN on Saturday.

* Monday into Tuesday has the potential of seeing snow or rain/snow 
  across the region with some potential accumulations for parts of 
  our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Trough axis will swing across the Ohio Valley this morning as sfc 
high pressure to our west slowly builds in over the Ohio Valley 
today into Friday. Upper trough will also slowly work eastward keep 
us under northwest flow aloft today with slight ridging developing 
on Friday. This will continue to advect in cold air from the north 
and keeping temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of 
year. With highs in the upper 30s/low 40s today and only the mid 30s 
to low 40s on Friday. Lows Friday morning into Saturday morning will 
also range between 10-15 degrees below normal in the low 20s with a 
few locations dropping down into the teens across the Bluegrass. 

Sfc pressure gradient will remain tight over the Ohio Valley for 
today. Gusty, blustery westerly winds will be around in the 
afternoon, gusts will be between 20-25 mph making it feel like it is 
around 30 in the upper 20s. We will remain dry with mainly clear 
skies into Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A another system will take shape over the central Plains on Saturday 
then work to the east-northeast through northern IN towards Lake 
Erie by Sunday evening. Warmer air will advect in from the south 
ahead of the approaching system pushing our temperatures into the 
low/mid 40 Saturday afternoon and increasing clouds due to 
isentropic lifting. Precipitation will spread from the west-
northwest to the east during the day Saturday. Initially, 
precipitation could fall as a wintry mix of rain/snow due to 
lingering cold air at the surface early on Saturday. Still some 
discrepancy in the forecast models when it comes to any accumulating 
snow. Current thinking is with a warm ground and temperatures 
warming to above freezing as the precipitation arrives, most will 
see rain with any slushy accumulations of a coating to near an inch 
will be over southern IN, with higher amounts as you work northward 
into central IN. All of the precipitation should transition over to 
all rain by late in the day into Saturday night and into Sunday. 
Most of the precipitation should be out of the CWA by Sunday 
evening. 

Surface high will build in behind the departing system and a cold 
front Sunday night into Monday. Another round of colder air will 
work into the area with lows in the mid 20s Monday morning and highs 
in the mid/upper 30s on Monday with mainly dry conditions during the 
day. 

The next impactful system looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday 
with better chances of most of the area seeing some snow. The 
challenge in the deterministic models is how much moisture will be 
available and how strong will this system be as it develops over the 
western Gulf Monday and then and then slides over the southeast US 
Monday night into Tuesday. Right now the GFS is the most bullish 
with its 00z run bring the most moisture and potentially higher snow 
amounts while the EURO is keeping most of the moisture on the 
southern and eastern side of the system. 

Weather turns drier but remains chilly from Wednesday into Thursday 
with highs in the low/mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Winds have decreased but the clouds have increased but flight 
categories will remain VFR. Winds will pick up again during the day 
with gusts of around 20kts around late morning or midday. Skies will 
clear, winds will diminish after sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN