788 
FXUS64 KMAF 270818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Mild and quiet weather is ahead for the Thanksgiving holiday.

- A disturbance brings low (20-40%) rain chances to the Permian
  Basin and both the Upper and Lower Trans Pecos Friday. Best (30-40%)
  chances will be over the Lower Trans Pecos.

- A strong cold front arrives Saturday evening, bringing much
  colder temperatures to start off a new week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mid to upper level ridging and surface high pressure retreating 
eastward facilitate a transition to south/southeast upslope winds 
for Thanksgiving Day. VIS/IR imagery early this morning displays 
thin high clouds in northwest flow aloft while weak ridging persists 
over the Desert SW. Troughing developing in the mid to upper pattern 
over the Great Basin into Pacific SW today induces a weak stationary 
front over the Permian Basin to retrograde west. This motion prompts 
a low-level mass response characterized by a shift from light 
west/southwest winds to the west of the boundary and light southerly 
winds east of the boundary to south/southeast winds areawide. 
Resulting moisture advection drives dew point temperatures from the 
30s F into the 40s F across the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and 
Rio Grande basins. Weak ridging today supports highs at least 10F to 
15F warmer than yesterday, mid to upper 60s F, upper 50s to lower 
60s F higher elevations of Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau, and 70s F 
Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. Continued increases in dew 
point temperature on persistent southeast winds tonight result in 
lows at least 5F to 10F warmer than last night. Lows tonight range 
from the mid 30s F higher terrain and northern SE NM plains into 
northwest Permian Basin, to mid to upper 40s F elsewhere.

Lee cyclogenesis intensifying east of the northern and central 
Rockies from CO into MT Friday morning forces a deepening low-level 
pressure gradient and increasing breezy to gusty southeast winds 
over central and eastern portions of the area by early Friday 
morning. Quasi-zonal flow downstream of weak troughing over the 
Great Basin into Pacific SW allows subtle short waves to ripple 
overhead accompanied by increased lift, moisture, and 
instability. Low to moderate (25% to 40%) rain probabilities are 
present over Terrell County into southern and eastern Permian 
Basin Friday morning through early afternoon. However, rainfall 
intensities and coverage are expected to stay small since forecast
soundings display drier air at mid to upper levels constraining 
vertical convective development. Clearer skies to the west of this
region of increased cloud cover and PoPs allows highs Friday to 
rise into the 60s and 70s F, whereas persistent cloud cover and 
PoPs to the east keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s F. The 
upper storm system develops farther southeast into the northern 
and central High Plains Friday evening. Winds shift 
south/southwest in response, and lower dew point temperatures in 
the 30s F are advected back into western higher terrain while dew 
point temperatures continue increasing into the upper 40s to mid 
50s F over central and eastern parts of the area beneath 
persistent cloud cover. All of this in addition to continued WAA 
keeps lows similar to tonight west of the central into eastern 
Stockton Plateau, but warmer and in the lower to mid 50s F over 
the central and eastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and 
Terrell County. Gusty winds continue into the early weekend, but 
the precipitation chances persist after then. The return to milder
temperatures that begins today is also expected to be short-
lived. Read the long term discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Rain chances taper down Friday evening as an upper-level 
disturbance departs to our east. Lows Friday night mainly cool 
into the 40s across the region. The aforementioned trough swings 
from the Rockies into the Plains Saturday. The resultant surface 
lee trough sends a strong cold front down into the Panhandle 
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front are currently 
forecast to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday, though 
this is dependent on the exact time of arrival of the cold front.
At the moment, FROPA at MAF looks to be around sunset Saturday. 
In either case, expect gusty northerly winds as the cold front 
pushes in. By Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the 20s in 
our northern counties, 30s for almost everyone else, and low 40s 
along the Rio Grande. MAF looks to finally see its first freeze of
the season Sunday morning. In stark contrast to Saturday, 
temperatures Sunday afternoon will only warm into the mid 40s to 
low 50s. Temperatures Sunday night cool a few degrees more than 
the previous night, then rebound into the low 50s to low 60s 
Monday. 

Another upper trough looks to digs into the Desert Southwest early 
Monday before swinging into our region late Monday into Tuesday. 
Winds in the Guadalupes may become strong as the system arrives. The 
approaching system also looks to potentially draw in some moisture 
along with it Monday into early Tuesday afternoon. Depending on the 
exact track of this system, as well as coinciding temperature and 
moisture profiles, there may be a chance of precipitation 
(potentially frozen in our northern counties). However, models are 
trending toward a northern track, which would lead to drier 
conditions for our region. Likewise, the NBM has also continued to 
trend downward in PoPs during this time frame. As of now,
precipitation looks unlikely. Details will become clearer as the 
system materializes.


Potential precipitation aside, temperatures continue an upward trend 
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of yet another trough developing near 
Baja. Highs in the 50s are forecast for most of the region Tuesday, 
with 60s growing in coverage west of the Pecos River as compared to 
Monday. Wednesday, highs in the mid 60s to low 70s return to the 
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Light 
winds are expected to become northerly to northeasterly between 06Z 
and 10Z this morning before shifting southeasterly between 16Z to 
20Z Thursday (except for PEQ) and remaining generally less than 8 
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  45  62  52 /   0   0  30  10 
Carlsbad                 65  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   69  50  65  51 /   0   0  40   0 
Fort Stockton            68  49  72  50 /   0  10  40   0 
Guadalupe Pass           60  44  64  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    65  40  66  42 /   0   0  10   0 
Marfa                    68  37  67  38 /   0   0  10   0 
Midland Intl Airport     65  46  63  50 /   0   0  30   0 
Odessa                   65  47  63  50 /   0   0  30   0 
Wink                     65  46  68  44 /   0  10  20   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55