511 
FXHW60 PHFO 270200
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak ridging will reside over the islands through Thanksgiving.
The result will be a stable environment with mainly clear to
partially cloudy skies and light winds. The lack of any significant
trade flow, or just light southeast or variable breezes will make
if feel more humid into the holiday weekend. Due to this wind 
pattern allowing the smaller islands to fall in the rain shadow 
of Big Island, any precipitation will be light and typically occur
over further interior, leeward locales. Kauai and Niihau rainfall
will likely increase early next week as a the tail end of a cold 
front approaching the area from the northwest stalls out near the
Garden Isle.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A somewhat anemic high pressure ridge parked over the islands 
through the holiday weekend will produce just enough subsidence
to maintain slightly above normal warmth, more humid days under 
partial cloudiness and light variable to southeasterly breezes. 
This afternoon's temperature inversion heights at both Lihue and
Hilo are ranging between 5,000 to 6,000 feet. These stronger,
relatively lower inversion heights are solid evidence of the
subsidence as will be dry statewide conditions under fair weather
cumulus. The position of the ridge in relation to the islands 
will also keep the state under a light southeasterly wind pattern.
These light, synoptic scale winds under more sun and clear
overnight skies will allow the local scale sea and land breezes 
to kick in over each island. 

Southeasterly winds will produce a rain shadow effect as upstream
air approaches the state and flows around Big Island. This 
equates to a disrupted (non-trade like) pattern and to lessened 
clouds as orographic lift over the island's topography will be 
limited. This will result in less frequent shower activity. We 
can't completely get away from the nature of the tropics so expect
a few brief stray showers primarily along upslope higher terrain.
The highest probabilities of precipitation will occur during the 
overnight to early morning hours over the eastern slopes of Big 
Island and Maui. Recent Kilauea volcanic activity from Episode 36
will increase the vog levels and the noticeable presence of haze 
through Thanksgiving. 

The weather pattern changes early next week as a cold front
approaches the state from the northwest. The forward motion of 
this boundary will slow and eventually stall near Kauai next 
Tuesday. Southerly winds ahead of the front pulling a more 
moisture-rich air mass over the western islands will likely 
increase mid to late week rainfall across Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.
Wet weather will favor the southern and western slopes of Kauai 
and Oahu as the southerlies lift tropical moisture into the higher
terrain. This may be the first significant weather maker of the
wet season so it will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves
through the holiday weekend. 


&&

.AVIATION...
Light east southeast winds tonight with gentle to moderate trades
building across the eastern part of the state late Thursday.
Sea breezes brought interior clouds this afternoon, which should 
begin to dissipate after sunset as land breezes fill in. Brief 
mountain obscurations may occur over the next few hours, but no 
AIRMETs in effect across Hawaii, or expected into Thursday. 


&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge, parked just north of the state, will allow for 
mainly gentle to moderate east to east-southeast flow across the 
waters through the end of this week. However, winds are forecast 
to ramp up for the typical windy areas around Maui and the Big 
Island late Thursday into Friday and a Small Craft Advisory may be
needed. Waters located in the lee of the islands will be more 
sheltered, and thus lighter flow with a nocturnally driven 
land/sea breeze pattern close to the coasts. Similar conditions 
will prevail through the weekend as a frontal system stalls north
and west of the islands. 

The current large long-period northwest swell will peak this
evening then gradually decline over the next few days. A
reinforcing northwest to north-northwest swell generated by a
compact low passing north of the islands today should arrive
Thursday night and could help maintain advisory level surf through
parts of the day Friday. The current High Surf Advisory is in
effect through early Friday morning for select north and west
facing shores, but that may need to be extended depending on this
reinforcing swell. With offshore buoy readings staying near or
just below 10 feet with the current swell, we have held off on
issuing a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for our local waters exposed
to the northwest swell.

Over the next few days, models rapidly deepen a low in the north 
Pacific, roughly 1,500 to 2,000 nm northwest of Kauai. A 
significant fetch of gale to storm force winds associated with 
this low will be pointed down the great circle route towards the 
island chain and will produce XL surf late this weekend. Wave
Watch 3 (WW3) guidance seems to be roughly 6 hours earlier than 
the ECWAVE, but for the current forecast the timing has been 
adjusted towards EC solution due to a well known early bias of the
WW3 model. Long-period forerunners should start arriving around
mid-day Saturday, then quickly ramp up in the evening and Saturday
night. The peak of the event currently appears to be Saturday 
night into Sunday with the potential for giant surf (40 to 50
feet) along north facing shores Saturday night into Sunday out of
the 300-320 degree swell direction. Surf heights will easily
exceed High Surf Warning thresholds for select north and west
facing shores, in addition to a SCA for rough seas.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the
weekend due to the lighter winds. Select south facing shores could
see some westerly wrap from the extra large northwest swell on
Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While statewide precipitation will be on the down trend, lower 
wind speed and higher humidity will remain below critical fire 
weather thresholds through the weekend. Temperature inversion 
heights near the Big Island and Maui will range between 5,000 to 
6,000 feet.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai 
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai 
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central 
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Blood
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kino
FIRE WEATHER...Blood

701 
FXHW60 PHFO 270211
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak ridging will reside over the islands through Thanksgiving.
The result will be a stable environment with mainly clear to 
partially cloudy skies and light winds. The lack of any significant 
trade flow, or just light southeast or variable breezes will make if 
feel more humid into the holiday weekend. Due to this wind pattern 
allowing the smaller islands to fall in the rain shadow of Big 
Island, any precipitation will be light and typically occur over 
further interior, leeward locales. Kauai and Niihau rainfall will 
likely increase early next week as a the tail end of a cold front 
approaching the area from the northwest stalls out near the Garden 
Isle.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A somewhat anemic high pressure ridge parked over the islands 
through the holiday weekend will produce just enough subsidence to 
maintain slightly above normal warmth, more humid days under partial 
cloudiness and light variable to southeasterly breezes. This 
afternoon's temperature inversion heights at both Lihue and Hilo are 
ranging between 5,000 to 6,000 feet. These stronger, relatively 
lower inversion heights are solid evidence of the subsidence as will 
be dry statewide conditions under fair weather cumulus. The position 
of the ridge in relation to the islands will also keep the state 
under a light southeasterly wind pattern.
These light, synoptic scale winds under more sun and clear overnight 
skies will allow the local scale sea and land breezes to kick in 
over each island. 

Southeasterly winds will produce a rain shadow effect as upstream 
air approaches the state and flows around Big Island. This equates 
to a disrupted (non-trade like) pattern and to lessened clouds as 
orographic lift over the island's topography will be limited. This 
will result in less frequent shower activity. We can't completely 
get away from the nature of the tropics so expect a few brief stray 
showers primarily along upslope higher terrain.
The highest probabilities of precipitation will occur during the 
overnight to early morning hours over the eastern slopes of Big 
Island and Maui. Recent Kilauea volcanic activity from Episode 36 
will increase the vog levels and the noticeable presence of haze 
through Thanksgiving. 

The weather pattern changes early next week as a cold front 
approaches the state from the northwest. The forward motion of this 
boundary will slow and eventually stall near Kauai next Tuesday. 
Southerly winds ahead of the front pulling a more moisture-rich air 
mass over the western islands will likely increase mid to late week 
rainfall across Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.
Wet weather will favor the southern and western slopes of Kauai and 
Oahu as the southerlies lift tropical moisture into the higher 
terrain. This may be the first significant weather maker of the wet 
season so it will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves 
through the holiday weekend. 


&&

.AVIATION...
Light east southeast winds tonight with gentle to moderate trades 
building across the eastern part of the state late Thursday.
Sea breezes brought interior clouds this afternoon, which should 
begin to dissipate after sunset as land breezes fill in. Brief 
mountain obscurations may occur over the next few hours, but no 
AIRMETs in effect across Hawaii, or expected into Thursday. 


&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge, parked just north of the state, will allow for 
mainly gentle to moderate east to east-southeast flow across the 
waters through the end of this week. However, winds are forecast to 
ramp up a bit for the typical windy areas around Maui and the Big 
Island Friday. Waters located in the lee of the islands will be more 
sheltered, and thus lighter flow with a nocturnally driven land/sea 
breeze pattern close to the coasts. Similar conditions will prevail 
through the weekend as a frontal system stalls north and west of the 
islands. 

The current large long-period northwest swell will peak this evening 
then gradually decline over the next few days. A reinforcing 
northwest to north-northwest swell generated by a compact low 
passing north of the islands today should arrive Thursday night and 
could help maintain advisory level surf through parts of the day 
Friday. The current High Surf Advisory is in effect through early 
Friday morning for select north and west facing shores, but that may 
need to be extended depending on this reinforcing swell. With 
offshore buoy readings staying near or just below 10 feet with the 
current swell, we have held off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory 
(SCA) for our local waters exposed to the northwest swell.

Over the next few days, models rapidly deepen a low in the north 
Pacific, roughly 1,500 to 2,000 nm northwest of Kauai. A significant 
fetch of gale to storm force winds associated with this low will be 
pointed down the great circle route towards the island chain and 
will produce XL surf late this weekend. Wave Watch 3 (WW3) guidance 
seems to be roughly 6 hours earlier than the ECWAVE, but for the 
current forecast the timing has been adjusted towards EC solution 
due to a well known early bias of the WW3 model. Long-period 
forerunners should start arriving around mid-day Saturday, then 
quickly ramp up Saturday evening into the night. The peak of the 
event currently appears to be Saturday night into Sunday with the 
potential for giant surf (40 to 50 feet) along north facing shores 
Saturday night into Sunday out of the 300-320 degree swell 
direction. Surf heights will easily exceed High Surf Warning 
thresholds for select north and west facing shores, in addition to a 
SCA for rough seas.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the weekend 
due to the lighter winds. Select south facing shores could see some 
westerly wrap from the extra large northwest swell on Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While statewide precipitation will be on the down trend, lower wind 
speed and higher humidity will remain below critical fire weather 
thresholds through the weekend. Temperature inversion heights near 
Big Island and Maui will range between 5,000 to 6,000 feet.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-
Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley 
North-Windward Haleakala.



&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Blood
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kino
FIRE WEATHER...Blood